长期定调行业高质量发展，短期 Q4 房地产 政策值得期待 核心观点 ⚫ 我们不同于市场的见解： 我们认为，行业风险评价降低、行业进入中长期修复通道的信心不断强化是推动地 产股修复的主要原因。短期内地产下滑速度有所加快，Q4 房地产政策加码预期提 升，优质地产股配置价值凸显。 ⚫ 具体事件评述： 二十届四中全会定调推动房地产高质量发展，我们认为政策重心将从短期刺激转向 新发展模式的探索，城市更新（包括城中村改造等盘活存量）、"好房子"建设或为 重点。 此次会议明确提出要"推动房地产高质量发展"。我们认为，房地产此前引发的金融 风险、保交楼风险、房企债务风险、房价大幅下跌风险等在最近两年得到了缓解， 未来几年的政策重心转向行业高质量发展模式的探索，是行业达到供需良性互动真 正实现"止跌回稳"的治本之策。 高质量发展模式的构建中，城市更新（包括城中村改造等盘活存量）、"好房子"建 设或为重点。今年以来中央多次会议强调城市更新， 而城中村改造作为城市更新重 要方向。此前中央城市工作会议强调"稳步推进城中村和危旧房改造"，以达到"建 设舒适便利的宜居城市"；《关于持续推进城市更新行动的意见》也明确不搞大拆大 建，而是聚 ...

10月28日，金地集团跌0.5%，截至发稿，报3.96元/股，成交2.28亿元，换手率1.27%，总市值178.78亿 元。金地集团股价已经连续4天下跌，区间累计跌幅5.49%。 截至发稿，吴中昊累计任职时间3年275天，现任基金资产总规模253.91亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 73.18%， 任职期间最差基金回报-13.01%。 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建 议。 资料显示，金地(集团)股份有限公司位于广东省深圳市福田区福田街道岗厦社区深南大道2007号金地中 心32层，成立日期1988年1月20日，上市日期2001年4月12日，公司主营业务涉及房地产开发与经营、物 业管理和物业租赁等。主营业务收入构成为：房地产开发62.07%，物业管理25.07%，其他5.79%，物业 出租5.70%，其他(补充)1.37%。 责任编辑：小浪快报 从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，国泰基金旗下1只基金重仓金地集团。国泰国证房地产行业指数A（160218）二季度持有股 数33 ...

股 票 研 究 推动行业高质量发展！ [Table_Industry] 房地产 二十届四中全会点评 本报告导读： 我们认为，未来五年中央对房地产的重视程度将对应提升，新房产品将顺应需求趋 势提质发展，不合时宜的限制性政策将进一步解除；供给侧将严控新增开发用地， 以城中村、危旧房改造形成有效投资，供应结构以优质地块为主。 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 行 业 跟 踪 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.10.27 2025-10-27 [table_Authors] [Table_Summary] 投资建议：维持"优于大市"评级。行业高质量发展内涵丰富，高屋 建瓴，相信未来会有更多信息。但不管怎样，在风险有序化解后， 当前重点城市房价持续下跌与高质量发展并不相符。2025 年 9 月， 70 个大中城市均没有出现房价环比上涨城市，新房和二手房之间价 差继续拉大。我们认为，房地产高质量发展与房价稳定密不可分， 目前基本面风险有序化解，数据运行略有走低，未来五年止跌回稳 是重要要求。看好蓝筹竞争格局，推荐：1）开发类：A 股-万科 A、 保利发展、招商蛇口 ...

对冲正当其时 [Table_Industry] 房地产 地产 9 月观察及数据点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 涂力磊(分析师) | 021-23185710 | tulilei@gtht.com | S0880525040101 | | 谢皓宇(分析师) | 010-83939826 | xiehaoyu@gtht.com | S0880518010002 | | 陈子仪(分析师) | 021-23219244 | chenziyi@gtht.com | S0880525040102 | | 陈昭颖(分析师) | 021-23183953 | chenzhaoying@gtht.com | S0880525100002 | 本报告导读： 9 月地产行业仍处下行通道，以投资为代表的前端投资降幅仍在加剧，隐含传统周 期下价格仍有压力，新房和二手房的价格差拉大，也意味着新项目带来的边际效益 在递减。 投资要点： 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.10.22 [Table_Invest] 评级： ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperforming the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - In September, both new and second-hand housing transaction volumes turned positive on a month-on-month and year-on-year basis, driven by seasonal factors and new policies in first-tier cities [4][20] - The land auction market showed a decline in heat, with a notable drop in average land premium rates, although first-tier cities still maintained premiums above 10% [4][20] - The report highlights a significant increase in the sales and land acquisition of top real estate companies, indicating a recovery in the sector [4][20] Summary by Sections New Housing Transactions - In September, new housing transaction area in 40 cities reached 935.4 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 9.0% and a year-on-year increase of 0.7% [12][14] - First-tier cities saw a month-on-month increase of 22.7% and a year-on-year increase of 9.9% in new housing transactions [13][16] - Second-tier cities experienced a month-on-month increase of 9.2% and a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [13][16] Second-hand Housing Transactions - In September, second-hand housing transaction area in 18 cities reached 758.6 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 6.0% and a year-on-year increase of 9.4% [20][23] - First and second-tier cities showed positive year-on-year growth in second-hand housing transactions, while third and fourth-tier cities experienced a decline [21][25] Inventory and Absorption - As of the end of September, the inventory of new homes in 12 tracked cities increased by 2.0% month-on-month but decreased by 12.7% year-on-year, with an overall absorption period of 18.9 months [4][12] - The average opening absorption rate in September was 39%, indicating a slight decline but remaining at a high level for the year [4][20] Land Market - The overall land auction heat declined in September, with a national average land premium rate of 3.3%, down 0.8 percentage points month-on-month [4][20] - The total land transaction area in September increased by 19.5% month-on-month but decreased by 9.1% year-on-year [4][20] Real Estate Companies - In September, the top 100 real estate companies saw a year-on-year increase of 0.3% in equity sales, with a total sales amount of 2.49 trillion yuan, down 12.8% year-on-year [4][20] - The land acquisition amount for the top 100 companies in September increased by 184.2% year-on-year, indicating strong market activity [4][20] Policy Environment - The Ministry of Natural Resources encouraged market-oriented methods to revitalize idle land, while first-tier cities continued to optimize real estate policies [4][20] - Specific policy adjustments in cities like Shenzhen and Shanghai aimed to ease purchasing restrictions and improve financing conditions [4][20] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable fundamentals in core cities, smaller firms with significant breakthroughs, and those benefiting from the recovery in the second-hand housing market [4][20]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate sector as "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Insights - The real estate market has shown signs of improvement with a narrowing year-on-year decline in transaction volumes for both new and second-hand homes. New home transaction area increased month-on-month, while the inventory of new homes decreased [5][16] - A new housing provident fund policy in Chengdu broadens eligibility for converting commercial loans to provident fund loans, potentially stimulating demand [5][16] Summary by Sections 1. New Home Market Tracking - In the week of October 11-17, 2025, new home transaction volume in 40 cities reached 26,000 units, a month-on-month increase of 168.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 18.2%. The transaction area was 2.702 million square meters, up 170.6% month-on-month and down 22.9% year-on-year [17][24] - Transaction volumes in first, second, third, and fourth-tier cities showed month-on-month growth rates of 130.8%, 220.2%, and 122.2% respectively, with year-on-year declines of -35.3%, 0.01%, and -34.9% [17][19] 2. Second-Hand Home Market Tracking - In 18 cities, second-hand home transactions totaled 20,000 units, a month-on-month increase of 193.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 29.7%. The transaction area was 183,300 square meters, up 188.9% month-on-month and down 30.9% year-on-year [45][50] - First, second, third, and fourth-tier cities saw month-on-month transaction growth rates of 241.6%, 184.7%, and 163.8% respectively, with year-on-year declines of -27.5%, -30.7%, and -33.9% [45][51] 3. Inventory and Depletion Cycle - The inventory of new homes in 12 cities was 14.1 million units, with a month-on-month growth rate of 0.05% and a year-on-year decline of 13.7%. The depletion cycle for new home inventory was 20.9 months, down 0.8 months month-on-month and up 0.4 months year-on-year [27][39] - The depletion cycle for new homes in first, second, third, and fourth-tier cities was 21.0, 17.8, and 88.6 months respectively, with month-on-month declines of 0.6, 0.9, and 5.2 months [39][43] 4. Land Market Tracking - The total area of land transactions across 100 cities was 8.157 million square meters, down 28.4% month-on-month and down 59.5% year-on-year. The total land transaction price was 20.16 billion yuan, down 51.1% month-on-month and down 57.9% year-on-year [60][63] - The average land price was 2,471.3 yuan per square meter, down 31.7% month-on-month but up 4.1% year-on-year. The land premium rate was 2.2%, down 0.8 percentage points month-on-month and up 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [60][64] 5. Policy Developments - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development announced reforms focusing on housing supply systems and urban construction, aiming to establish a new mechanism for real estate development [97]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate industry, indicating optimism about future developments and recovery in the sector [2][3]. Core Insights - The real estate industry is currently experiencing a phase of inventory reduction, with investment contraction outpacing sales decline. The report anticipates that the "Good Housing" policy will create new pathways for recovery, particularly in core cities, and will lead to a shift in business models from finance-oriented to manufacturing-oriented [2][3][21]. Investment Sector Summary - **Investment Trends**: From January to September 2025, total real estate development investment reached 67,706 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.9%. In September alone, investment fell by 21.3% compared to the previous month [3][20]. - **New Construction**: New construction area decreased by 18.9% year-on-year, with a slight improvement in the month-on-month comparison [20][21]. - **Completion Rates**: The completion of projects showed a positive trend in September, with a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [20][21]. Sales Sector Summary - **Sales Performance**: The total sales area for real estate from January to September 2025 was 6.6 billion square meters, down 5.5% year-on-year. In September, the sales area decreased by 10.5% compared to the same month last year [21][35]. - **Sales Revenue**: The total sales revenue was 6.3 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.9%. The average selling price of properties decreased by 3% year-on-year [21][35][33]. Funding Sector Summary - **Funding Sources**: Total funding sources for real estate development amounted to 7.2 trillion yuan, down 8.4% year-on-year. In September, the decline in funding sources expanded to 11.5% [36][38]. - **Loan Trends**: Domestic loans saw a year-on-year decrease of 14.6% in September, indicating tightening financial conditions for the sector [36][38]. Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: 1. "Good Housing" companies: Jianfa International, Binjiang Group, China Resources Land, Greentown China, China Jinmao, Jianfa Holdings [2]. 2. Companies with potential for commercial real estate revaluation: New Town Holdings, Yuexiu Property, China Merchants Shekou, Longfor Group, China Overseas Development, Poly Developments, Huafa Group [2]. 3. Second-hand housing intermediaries: Beike-W, with a focus on I Love My Home [2]. 4. Property management firms: Greentown Services, China Resources Vientiane, China Merchants Jiyu, Poly Property, China Overseas Property [2].

来源：环球网 ·住建部部长倪虹：下功夫建设好房子 ·住建部等九部门：编制智能化市政基础设施建设和改造行动计划 ·北京住房租赁企业税收新政出台 ·成都发布公积金新政 取消本市缴存限制 ·苏州相城两宗低密宅地底价成交 总成交金额6.61亿元 ·杭州滨江宅地溢价近20%成交 ·北京发布今年第八轮拟供商品住宅用地清单 ·上海八批次土拍推出6宗地块 总起价184.95亿元 ·中建·运河玖院9月热销448套 ·北京城建·玺院人文实景示范区开放 ·辛杰辞任万科董事长 深铁集团黄力平接任 ·融创债务重组计划获98.5%债权人投赞成票 ·多家房企发布前9月销售业绩 1.住建部部长倪虹：下功夫建设好房子 10月13日，《学习时报》刊发住房和城乡建设部党组书记、部长倪虹署名文章《新时代新征程城市工作 要识变应变求变》。文章提出，要在标准、设计、材料、建造、维护等方面系统发力，把新房子建设成 为安全、舒适、绿色、智慧的好房子，同时把老房子改造成为好房子。持续推进城镇老旧小区改造，实 施物业服务质量提升行动，解决加装电梯、停车、充电等难题。推动新型城市基础设施建设，加快老旧 管线改造升级，因地制宜建设综合管廊，推进城市基础设施生命线安 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a narrowing decline in transaction volumes for both new and second-hand homes, with significant month-on-month increases in new home sales across major cities [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the impact of favorable policies, including low mortgage rates and city-specific initiatives aimed at urban renewal, which are expected to stimulate market activity [3][32]. - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the evolving market dynamics, particularly in commercial real estate and property management [3][32]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data - New home sales in 34 key cities reached 2.604 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 166%, with first and second-tier cities seeing a 170% increase [3][4]. - Year-on-year, new home sales in October are down 24%, with first and second-tier cities down 22% and third and fourth-tier cities down 43% [3][7][8]. - The inventory of unsold residential properties in 15 cities decreased by 0.2%, with a current available area of 90.1 million square meters [3][23]. 2. Policy and News Tracking - The People's Bank of China reported that the average mortgage rate for new loans was approximately 3.1% in September, down 25 basis points year-on-year [3][32]. - The Ministry of Natural Resources released 13 industry standards to guide urban renewal and the revitalization of underutilized spaces [3][32]. - Various cities have implemented tax incentives for rental housing enterprises and optimized public housing fund policies to support homebuyers [3][32]. 3. Company Performance - China Jinmao reported a 6% increase in sales volume to 3.675 million square meters and a 27.3% increase in sales revenue to 80.69 billion yuan for the first nine months [3][36]. - Other major developers like Poly Developments and China Vanke reported declines in sales volume and revenue, with Poly Developments seeing a 25.1% drop in sales volume [3][36]. - The report notes that several companies are actively engaging in financing activities, including issuing convertible bonds and providing loan guarantees [3][36].

Group 1 - Gemdale Group's stock price has declined for five consecutive days, with a total drop of 6.39% during this period, currently trading at 4.10 CNY per share [1] - The company's market capitalization stands at 18.51 billion CNY, with a trading volume of 313 million CNY and a turnover rate of 1.66% [1] - The main business segments of Gemdale Group include real estate development (62.07%), property management (25.07%), and property leasing (5.70%) [1] Group 2 - Zhongke Wotu Fund holds a significant position in Gemdale Group, with its fund, Zhongke Wotu Wori Mixed Initiation A (005855), owning 265,900 shares, accounting for 3.12% of the fund's net value [2] - The fund has experienced a floating loss of approximately 2,130 CNY today and a total floating loss of 74,500 CNY during the five-day decline [2] - The fund has a total scale of 16.51 million CNY and has returned 8.03% year-to-date, ranking 6,176 out of 8,160 in its category [2] Group 3 - The fund manager of Zhongke Wotu Wori Mixed Initiation A is Xu Wei, who has been in the position for 6 years and 72 days [3] - Under Xu Wei's management, the fund has achieved a best return of 70.14% and a worst return of -5.32% [3]