量价回落，波动加剧 [Table_Industry] 房地产 ——中国城市运行周期跟踪（2025.Q2） | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 证书编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 涂力磊(分析师) | 021-23185710 | tulilei@gtht.com | S0880525040101 | | 谢皓宇(分析师) | 010-83939826 | xiehaoyu@gtht.com | S0880518010002 | | 白淑媛(分析师) | 021-38675923 | baishuyuan@gtht.com | S0880518010004 | 本报告导读： 2025 年 Q2 整体市场表现出成交量疲软、价格企稳但缺乏趋势以及库存上涨、去化 压力增大的特点。 投资要点： 房地产《确立无风险时代，相信未来》2025.07.17 房地产《城市发展存量提质，更新收储蓄势待 发》2025.07.16 房地产《第 28 周成交暂时回落，温和复苏趋势不 变》2025.07.14 房地产《房地双收，加速去库》2025.07.09 请务必阅读正文之后 ...

保交付依然是2025年楼市的重要工作之一。 近日，中指研究院发布的《2025上半年中国房地产企业交付规模排行榜》显示，2025年上半年，55家房地产企业累计交付房屋超过50万套，其中15家企业 交付房屋超万套。 《每日经济新闻》记者注意到，与去年同期相比，新房交付已过高峰期，房企交付套数普遍下降，包括绿地集团、融创中国、建业集团等房企的交付规模 下降超50%，"保交付"压力持续减轻。 "随着销售高峰期项目陆续交付，'保交付'进入新的阶段。"上海易居房地产研究院副院长严跃进接受每经记者微信采访时表示，一方面，交付工作仍是房 企履行主体责任的核心内容；另一方面，行业交付高峰已过，压力持续减轻，下一步谋求发展是企业经营的新重心。 交付量普遍回落，部分房企降幅超50% 行业保交付的压力正在趋缓。 亿翰智库监测数据显示，今年上半年，上榜企业交付量普遍下滑，部分房企如绿地集团、融创中国、建业集团等交付套数降幅超50%。位列交付榜前三位 的企业分别是碧桂园、保利发展和中海地产，交付套数分别是75000套、65000套和42155套，企业间交付量差异明显。排名前十位的房企交付总套数为 38.08万套，占50家房企总交付套数的 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the volatile market, credit bonds outperformed interest - rate bonds. Interest - rate bond yields slightly declined, while credit bond yields dropped more significantly. Credit spreads mostly decreased slightly, with the 3Y variety showing a relatively larger decline [2][5]. - Urban investment bond spreads generally compressed slightly. Spreads of external ratings AAA, AA +, and AA platforms decreased by 1BP respectively. Spreads also declined when classified by administrative levels [2][9][15]. - Most industrial bond spreads decreased. Central and state - owned enterprise real - estate bond spreads declined, mixed - ownership real - estate bond spreads decreased, and private - enterprise real - estate bond spreads increased. Spreads of coal, steel, and chemical bonds also decreased [2][18]. - The yields of secondary and perpetual bonds followed the decline of certificates of deposit, with the short - to - medium - term performing relatively strongly [2][21]. - The excess spreads of 5Y industrial bonds and 3Y urban investment bonds slightly decreased [2][24]. Summary by Directory 1. Credit Bonds Outperformed Interest - Rate Bonds in the Volatile Market - Interest - rate bond yields slightly declined. The yields of 1Y, 5Y, and 7Y China Development Bank bonds decreased by 2BP, 1BP, and 1BP respectively, while the 3Y and 10Y remained flat [2][5]. - Credit bond yields dropped more significantly. The yields of 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y credit bonds decreased to varying degrees [2][5]. - Credit spreads mostly decreased slightly, with the 3Y variety showing a relatively larger decline. Rating spreads and term spreads showed obvious differentiation [5]. 2. Urban Investment Bond Spreads Slightly Compressed - By external ratings, the spreads of AAA, AA +, and AA platforms decreased by 1BP respectively, with different changes in different regions [9]. - By administrative levels, the spreads of provincial, municipal, and district - level platforms decreased by 2BP, 1BP, and 1BP respectively, with different changes in different regions [15]. 3. Most Industrial Bond Spreads Decreased - Real - estate bonds: Central and state - owned enterprise real - estate bond spreads decreased by 2 - 4BP, mixed - ownership real - estate bond spreads decreased by 1BP, and private - enterprise real - estate bond spreads increased by 7BP [2][18]. - Other industrial bonds: The spreads of AAA, AA +, and AA coal bonds decreased by 2BP, 2BP, and 1BP respectively; the spreads of AAA and AA + steel bonds decreased by 2BP and 4BP respectively; and the spreads of all levels of chemical bonds decreased by 3BP [2][18]. 4. The Yields of Secondary and Perpetual Bonds Followed the Decline of Certificates of Deposit, with the Short - to - Medium - Term Performing Relatively Strongly - 1Y secondary and perpetual bonds: Yields decreased by 2 - 3BP, and spreads compressed by 1 - 2BP [21]. - 3Y secondary and perpetual bonds: The yields of secondary capital bonds decreased by 2BP, and spreads decreased by 2 - 3BP; the yields of perpetual bonds decreased by 3 - 4BP, and spreads decreased by 3 - 4BP [21]. - 5Y secondary and perpetual bonds: The yields of secondary capital bonds decreased by 1 - 2BP, and spreads compressed by 0 - 1BP; the yields of AA + and above perpetual bonds decreased by 1BP, and spreads increased by 1BP, while the yields of AA perpetual bonds decreased by 4BP, and spreads decreased by 2BP [21]. 5. The Excess Spreads of 5Y Industrial Bonds and 3Y Urban Investment Bonds Slightly Decreased - AAA 3Y industrial perpetual bond excess spreads remained at 3.82BP, at the 1.32% quantile since 2015; 5Y industrial perpetual bond excess spreads decreased by 0.86BP to 7.65BP, at the 4.18% quantile since 2015 [24]. - Urban investment AAA 3Y perpetual bond excess spreads decreased by 0.65BP to 3.75BP, at the 0.29% quantile; urban investment AAA 5Y perpetual bond excess spreads increased by 0.09BP to 10.21BP, at the 10.93% quantile [24]. 6. Credit Spread Database Compilation Instructions - Market - wide credit spreads, commercial bank secondary and perpetual spreads, and industrial/urban investment perpetual bond credit spreads are calculated based on ChinaBond medium - and short - term notes and ChinaBond perpetual bond data. Historical quantiles are since the beginning of 2015 [28]. - Industrial and urban investment bond credit spreads are compiled and statistically analyzed by Cinda Securities R & D Center, with historical quantiles since the beginning of 2015 [28]. - Specific calculation methods and sample selection criteria are provided, including how to calculate spreads, which samples to select, and which samples to exclude [31].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry is facing significant challenges in the first half of 2025, with a notable performance divergence among listed companies, as many report substantial losses while a few manage to turn profits [1][2]. Group 1: Overall Performance - As of July 17, 2025, 61 listed real estate companies have disclosed their mid-year performance forecasts, with a total expected loss ranging from 342.56 billion to 464.97 billion [1]. - Out of these, 24 companies anticipate profits while 37 expect losses, indicating that 60% of the companies are projected to report losses [1][2]. - The overall trend shows a decline in performance, with companies like China Vanke and Greenland Holdings shifting from profit to loss, while others like Joy City and Urban Construction Development have managed to turn losses into profits [1][2]. Group 2: Companies Turning Profits - In the first half of 2025, 24 companies are expected to achieve profits totaling between 68.68 billion and 80.16 billion, with 12 companies successfully reversing previous losses [2][3]. - Urban Construction Development is projected to report a net profit of 4.4 billion to 6.54 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of up to 575.14% [3][7]. - Other companies that have turned profitable include Zhongzhou Holdings, City Investment Holdings, and Joy City, showcasing resilience in a challenging market [2][3]. Group 3: Companies Reporting Losses - Among the 37 companies forecasting losses, 13 are expected to report their first-ever losses, including Shahe Co., Xiangjiang Holdings, and Greenland Holdings [8][11]. - The total expected loss for these companies ranges from 422.72 billion to 533.64 billion, with Vanke leading with a projected loss of 100 billion to 120 billion [8][11]. - Other notable companies with significant losses include Jindi Group, which anticipates a loss of 34 billion to 42 billion, and Xinda Real Estate, expecting a loss of 35 billion to 39 billion [11][12]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The overall real estate market is still in an adjustment phase, but signs of stabilization are emerging, particularly in first-tier and some strong second-tier cities [14]. - Analysts suggest that the second half of 2025 may present a turning point for the industry, with potential recovery driven by policy adjustments and improved buyer confidence [13][14]. - The top 100 real estate companies reported a total sales amount of 18,364.1 billion, a year-on-year decline of 11.8%, but the rate of decline is narrowing [13].

Group 1 - Gindai Group has experienced a decline for five consecutive trading days, with a cumulative drop of -7.28% [1] - Gindai Group, founded in Shenzhen in 1988 and listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2001, has developed into a comprehensive listed company focusing on real estate development and related diversified businesses [1] - Two funds under Xingquan Global Fund have entered the top ten shareholders of Gindai Group, both being new additions in the first quarter of this year [1] Group 2 - The two funds are Xingquan Business Model Mixed (LOF) A and Xingquan New Vision Open Mixed, with year-to-date returns of 6.58% and 6.12% respectively [1] - Xingquan Business Model Mixed (LOF) A ranks 2604 out of 4519 in its category, while Xingquan New Vision Open Mixed ranks 939 out of 2296 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The performance forecasts of real estate companies indicate a mixed recovery, with some companies turning losses into profits while others continue to face significant losses [1][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - As of July 17, 2025, 25 real estate companies listed on A-shares have disclosed their half-year performance forecasts, with 10 companies, including Poly Developments and Binjiang Group, reporting profits [1][3]. - Poly Developments leads with a forecasted net profit of 27.35 billion yuan, although this represents a decline compared to previous years [3]. - Binjiang Group is noted for its impressive profit growth, with an expected net profit increase of 40.01% to 69.98%, attributed to a higher volume of property deliveries [5][6]. Group 2: Profitability Trends - Among the 25 companies, 15 are expected to report losses, with notable companies like Kinka Real Estate and Financial Street showing potential for reduced losses in the upcoming period [3][4]. - Companies such as China Communications Real Estate and Greenland Holdings have seen their losses increase, while others like Jin Di Group have reported significant losses due to reduced sales and asset impairment provisions [4][5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The real estate market is experiencing a recovery driven by policy support, with significant increases in land sales and new housing transactions in cities like Beijing [7][8]. - The focus on high-quality product offerings and understanding consumer needs is emphasized as critical for companies to enhance their market competitiveness [8].

Group 1 - The company, through its subsidiary Vision Century Investments (China) Limited, provides a guarantee for a loan of up to RMB 57.5 million to Link JV Holdings Limited, with a maximum guarantee amount of RMB 28.75 million [1][2][3] - The loan is intended to support the development of a project located in Shanghai, with a loan term of up to 12 months [1][2] - The guarantee falls within the authorized limit approved by the company's board and shareholders, which allows for a total guarantee amount of up to RMB 10 billion [1][2][3] Group 2 - The company has a total external guarantee balance of RMB 17.991 billion, which accounts for 30.47% of the company's audited net assets attributable to shareholders for 2024 [3] - The guarantees provided to subsidiaries amount to RMB 12.779 billion, while guarantees to joint ventures and associates total RMB 5.212 billion [3] - There are no overdue guarantees reported by the company [3]

证券代码：600383 证券简称：金地集团 公告编号：2025-029 金地（集团）股份有限公司 科 学 筑 家 担保对象及基本情况 | | 被担保人名称 本次担保金额 | Link JV 28,750 | Holdings Limited 万元 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 担保对象 | 实际为其提供的担保余额 | 28,750 | 万元 | | | 是否在前期预计额度内 | 是 | | | | 本次担保是否有反担保 | 否 | | 关于为上海项目公司融资提供担保的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 累计担保情况 | 对外担保逾期的累计金额（万元） | 0 | | --- | --- | | 截至本公告日上市公司及其控股子 公司对外担保总额（万元） | 1,799,081.40 | | 对外担保总额占上市公司最近一期 经审计净资产的比例（%） | 30.47 | 一、担保情况概述 （一） 担保的基本情况 金地（集团）股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）之子公司 Gl ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, anticipating stronger policies to stabilize the market [3][4][36]. Core Insights - The investment and sales in the real estate sector are both weakening, with expectations for more robust policies to halt the decline and stabilize the market [3][4]. - The report highlights that the investment in real estate from January to June 2025 has decreased by 11.2% year-on-year, with new starts down by 20.0% and completions down by 14.8% [4][19]. - Sales volume and prices are both declining, with sales area down by 3.5% and sales amount down by 5.5% in the same period [20][35]. - Funding sources are tightening, with a 6.2% year-on-year decline in total funding sources for real estate development [36][38]. Investment Analysis Investment Side - Real estate development investment totaled 466.58 billion yuan from January to June 2025, down 11.2% year-on-year, with June alone seeing a 12.9% decline [4][19]. - New starts and completions are also down significantly, with new starts down 20.0% and completions down 14.8% year-on-year [19][20]. Sales Side - The total sales area for real estate was 460 million square meters, a decrease of 3.5% year-on-year, with June seeing a 5.5% decline [20][35]. - The average selling price of properties decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, with June's average price at 9,649 yuan per square meter, down 5.6% year-on-year [34][35]. Funding Side - Total funding sources for real estate development amounted to 500.2 billion yuan, down 6.2% year-on-year, with domestic loans showing a positive growth of 0.6% [36][38]. - Sales returns are weakening, with deposits and prepayments down by 16.7% year-on-year in June [36][38].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Gindal Group, is expected to report significant losses in the first half of 2025, with projected net profit attributable to shareholders ranging from -34 billion to -42 billion yuan, primarily due to declining sales and reduced revenue [1] Financial Performance - The projected net profit for the first half of 2025 is significantly worse than the previous year's figures, which were a net profit of -33.61 billion yuan and a total profit of -46.58 billion yuan [1] - The company anticipates a non-recurring net profit of -32 billion to -40 billion yuan for the same period in 2025, compared to -26.95 billion yuan in the previous year [1] Operational Challenges - The decline in sales scale and the reduction in transferable area are cited as key reasons for the expected losses [1] - The company has adjusted its operational and sales strategies in response to market conditions, leading to asset impairment provisions due to the net realizable value of some inventory being lower than cost [1] Strategic Initiatives - To address inventory issues, the company is pursuing asset revitalization measures, including land acquisition and exchange [1] - A recent project in Wuhan, which involved the acquisition of a school site through a housing reserve, achieved an 88% sales rate during its initial launch [1] Financing Efforts - The company is seeking to enhance cash flow to restore operations and has received investor approval to cancel the 2025 exit arrangement for a specific asset-backed plan [1] - Gindal Group is also working on financing options such as operational property loans and real estate asset-backed securities to secure additional cash [2]