Jiahe Foods(SH:605300) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-09-03 03:30Investment Rating - Investment Rating: Buy (Maintain) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing pressure on its plant-based cream products, but adjustments in its coffee segment are showing positive results. The overseas expansion continues to gain momentum [1][3]. Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.073 billion yuan, down 19.1% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 69 million yuan, down 48.8% year-on-year. Q2 2024 revenue was 532 million yuan, down 22.41% year-on-year, with a net profit of 24 million yuan, down 67.2% year-on-year [3][4]. - The decline in revenue and profit is primarily due to a significant drop in demand for plant-based cream products and increased marketing and channel expansion expenses. The high-margin plant-based cream sales are under pressure, and new product categories will take time to contribute to profits [3][4]. - The company has adjusted its product and market strategies, with Q2 2024 coffee segment revenue increasing by 25% year-on-year, while plant-based cream revenue decreased by 40.1% year-on-year [4]. Product and Market Strategy - The revenue breakdown for Q2 2024 shows plant-based cream at 275 million yuan, coffee at 69 million yuan, plant-based products at 18 million yuan, and other products at 108 million yuan. The revenue share of plant-based cream has decreased to 51.6%, down 15.3 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The company is focusing on high-end product structures and new customer acquisition strategies, with significant growth in its self-branded products, such as a 674% year-on-year increase in online sales of its oat milk product [4]. Cost and Profitability Analysis - The gross margin for H1 2024 was 17.9%, down 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, while Q2 2024 gross margin was 17.8%, up 1.6 percentage points year-on-year. The decrease in plant-based cream's revenue share is a contributing factor [4]. - The company has increased its sales, management, and R&D expenses significantly, with sales expenses rising by 72.3% year-on-year. The net profit margin for H1 2024 was 6.5%, down 3.7 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Financial Forecast - The company has revised its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, expecting net profits of 168 million yuan, 190 million yuan, and 209 million yuan respectively, down from previous estimates of 214 million yuan, 246 million yuan, and 284 million yuan [3][4]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are 0.42 yuan, 0.48 yuan, and 0.52 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 26.3, 23.3, and 21.2 [4].