东方雨虹：营收&利润承压下滑，零售端仍保持较好增长韧性

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for long-term growth despite current challenges [1][6]. Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 9.69% year-on-year in H1 2024, with total revenue reaching 15.218 billion. Net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 29.31% to 0.943 billion [1]. - The retail segment shows resilience with a 7.66% increase in revenue, driven by the construction sector, while the engineering and direct sales channels faced declines [3]. - The company is optimistic about the sand powder category, which is expected to become a new growth curve, supported by an expanded retail network and new supply bases [2]. Revenue and Profit Summary - H1 2024 revenue was 15.218 billion, down 9.69% year-on-year. Q2 alone saw a revenue of 8.069 billion, a 13.77% decline [1]. - The company’s net profit for H1 2024 was 0.943 billion, reflecting a 29.31% decrease, with Q2 net profit at 0.596 billion, down 37.23% [1]. Margin and Cost Analysis - The overall gross margin improved slightly to 29.2% in H1 2024, up 0.32 percentage points year-on-year, with Q2 gross margin at 28.81% [2]. - The company’s expense ratio increased by 2.16 percentage points to 18.60%, impacting net profit margins [4]. Channel Performance - Retail revenue reached 5.438 billion in H1 2024, up 7.66%, while engineering revenue was 6.699 billion, up 9.07%. Direct sales revenue fell significantly by 46.01% to 2.828 billion [3]. - The retail channel, primarily focused on civil construction, saw a 13.23% revenue increase, with nearly 5,000 distributors and 300,000 distribution points [3]. Financial Forecast - The company’s net profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to 2.0 billion, 2.3 billion, and 2.66 billion respectively, down from previous estimates [1]. - The projected revenue for 2024 is 31.628 billion, reflecting a 3.64% decline from 2023 [5]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - The company reported a cash outflow of 1.328 billion in H1 2024, an improvement compared to the previous year [4]. - Accounts receivable increased by 2.575 billion to 12.14 billion, with short-term receivables accounting for 64% [4]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to be 12.76 for 2024, with a P/B ratio of 0.86 and an EV/EBITDA of 3.78 [5][11].