Meinian Onehealth(002044) 国海证券·2024-09-03 06:17Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Viewpoints - The company's individual check-up revenue proportion and customer unit price have steadily increased, with a positive outlook on the company leading the digital health management upgrade [1] - The company's revenue in the first half of 2024 was 4,205 million yuan, a decrease of 5.53% year-on-year, with a net loss attributable to the parent company of 216 million yuan, in line with the median of the performance forecast [2] - The customer unit price has continued to rise steadily, from 514 yuan in the first half of 2022 to 653 yuan in the first half of 2024, benefiting from the return of basic physical examination project prices, customer structure optimization, and innovation project promotion [2] - The proportion of individual customer revenue has increased significantly, from 24% in the first half of 2022 to 33% in the first half of 2024, driven by enhanced cooperation with public domain platforms and improved store fulfillment efficiency [2] - The company's revenue in the second quarter of 2024 achieved positive growth, with revenue of 2,400 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3%, and a gross profit margin of 41.36%, a year-on-year increase of 0.02 percentage points [2] - The decline in single-store revenue and reception volume is the main reason affecting the company's profitability in the first half of the year, with a total of 608 branches and a total reception of 9.88 million people in the first half of 2024, a decrease of 21% year-on-year [2] - The company's revenue is expected to be 11,500 million yuan, 13,700 million yuan, and 16,500 million yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 5%, 20%, and 20% [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 705 million yuan, 915 million yuan, and 1,197 million yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 39%, 30%, and 31% [4] Financial Performance - The company's revenue in 2023 was 10,894 million yuan, with a growth rate of 26%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 506 million yuan, with a growth rate of 190% [5] - The company's revenue in 2024 is expected to be 11,471 million yuan, with a growth rate of 5%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 705 million yuan, with a growth rate of 39% [5] - The company's revenue in 2025 is expected to be 13,741 million yuan, with a growth rate of 20%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 915 million yuan, with a growth rate of 30% [5] - The company's revenue in 2026 is expected to be 16,496 million yuan, with a growth rate of 20%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1,197 million yuan, with a growth rate of 31% [5] - The company's ROE in 2023 was 7%, and it is expected to be 9%, 11%, and 13% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5] - The company's gross profit margin in 2023 was 43%, and it is expected to be 44%, 44%, and 45% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5] - The company's net profit margin in 2023 was 5%, and it is expected to be 6%, 7%, and 7% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5] Market Data - The current price of the company's stock is 3.43 yuan, with a 52-week price range of 3.25-7.12 yuan [2] - The total market value of the company is 13,425.89 million yuan, with a total share capital of 3,914.2539 million shares [2] - The circulating share capital is 3,872.4487 million shares, with a daily average turnover of 86.06 million yuan and a monthly turnover rate of 13.37% [2]