山西汾酒2024年中报业绩点评：收入保持稳健增长，毛利率拖累利润表现

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu [6] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 22.746 billion yuan for H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.65%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.41 billion yuan, up 24.27% year-on-year [5][6] - In Q2 2024, the total revenue was 7.408 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.06%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.147 billion yuan, an increase of 10.23% year-on-year [5][6] - The growth in revenue was driven by a faster increase in other liquor categories compared to mid-to-high price liquor categories, with H1 2024 revenue from mid-to-high price liquor at 16.427 billion yuan (up 17.38% year-on-year) and other liquor at 6.233 billion yuan (up 27.36% year-on-year) [5][6] - The company is steadily expanding its market presence nationwide while controlling growth in its home province, with H1 2024 revenue from the home province at 8.394 billion yuan (up 11.36% year-on-year) and from outside the province at 14.266 billion yuan (up 25.68% year-on-year) [5][6] - The company has actively managed its delivery and payment schedules, resulting in weaker cash flow in Q2, but overall performance remained robust with H1 2024 cash flow from sales at 21.595 billion yuan (up 21.96% year-on-year) [5][6] - Profitability showed fluctuations in Q2 due to product mix, with the net profit margin declining by 1.8 percentage points to 28.99% and gross margin down by 2.7 percentage points to 75.09% [5][6] - The company possesses three competitive advantages: differentiated aroma, brand heritage as one of the "Four Great Chinese Liquors," and a comprehensive product matrix, indicating strong long-term competitiveness [6] Financial Summary - For H1 2024, the total revenue was 22.746 billion yuan, with a net profit of 8.41 billion yuan [5][6] - The projected EPS for 2024 and 2025 is 10.41 yuan and 12.22 yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 12.7 billion yuan and 14.9 billion yuan [6]