NHD(002946) 光大证券·2024-09-03 07:08Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company's low-temperature business is performing well, with profitability continuing to enhance. In H1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.364 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.25%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 296 million yuan, up 25.26% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company is successfully expanding its D2C channel, with e-commerce revenue in H1 2024 reaching 515 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.42% [1]. - The gross margin improved due to a decline in raw milk prices and product mix optimization, with H1 2024 gross margin at 29.23%, up 2.23 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company reported revenues of 5.364 billion yuan, with a net profit of 296 million yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 313 million yuan, reflecting increases of 25.26% and 36.39% year-on-year respectively [1]. - For Q2 2024, the company achieved revenues of 2.751 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.94% year-on-year, while net profit rose by 17.72% to 207 million yuan [1]. - The company’s revenue from liquid milk, milk powder, and other products in H1 2024 was 4.844 billion yuan, 35 million yuan, and 486 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +0.54%, -15.20%, and +10.64% [1]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for H1 2024 was 29.23%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.23 percentage points, primarily due to lower raw milk prices and improved product mix [2]. - The net profit margin for H1 2024 was 5.53%, reflecting an increase of 1.19 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Revenue Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits of 550 million yuan, 663 million yuan, and 742 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.64 yuan, 0.77 yuan, and 0.86 yuan [2][3]. - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 14, 12, and 10 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2].