CMS(600999) 海通证券·2024-09-03 08:21Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company's proprietary business has shown outstanding performance, driving overall profit growth, while brokerage, asset management, and investment banking businesses have experienced declines. The report remains optimistic about the company's collaboration with China Merchants Group and China Merchants Bank, with a reasonable value range set at 15.76-17.07 yuan, maintaining the "Outperform the Market" rating [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 9.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.75 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.4%. The corresponding EPS is 0.51 yuan, with an ROE of 4.1%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year. The second quarter saw operating revenue of 5.3 billion yuan, down 12.2% year-on-year but up 23.2% quarter-on-quarter, and a net profit of 2.59 billion yuan, up 5.0% year-on-year and 20.1% quarter-on-quarter [5] Business Segments - Brokerage business revenue in the first half of 2024 was 2.58 billion yuan, down 12.1% year-on-year, accounting for 27.0% of total revenue. The average daily trading volume in the market was 961.6 billion yuan, down 6.4% year-on-year. The company is enhancing the professional capabilities of its wealth advisory team and optimizing the empowerment system for wealth advisors to improve client service quality [5] - Investment banking revenue in the first half of 2024 was 280 million yuan, down 36.3% year-on-year. The underwriting scale for equity business increased by 45.8% year-on-year, while bond underwriting scale rose by 35.8% year-on-year. The company ranked fifth in equity underwriting scale, with a total of 11.97 billion yuan in equity underwriting, including 3.5 billion yuan from IPOs and 8.4 billion yuan from refinancing [5] - Asset management revenue was 340 million yuan, down 8.5% year-on-year, with total asset management scale reaching 302.2 billion yuan, up 2.5% year-on-year [5] Investment Strategy - The company achieved positive growth in proprietary investments, with investment income (including fair value) of 4.75 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, up 21.3% year-on-year. The second quarter's investment income was 2.7 billion yuan, up 23.3% year-on-year. The company continues to implement a "large and stable" investment strategy, adjusting and optimizing the investment structure according to market conditions [5] Earnings Forecast - The company expects EPS for 2024-2026 to be 0.99, 1.20, and 1.28 yuan respectively, with BVPS of 13.13, 13.99, and 15.01 yuan respectively. A P/B ratio of 1.2-1.3x is assigned for 2024, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 15.76-17.07 yuan, maintaining the "Outperform the Market" rating [5]