宏川智慧：石化仓储需求偏弱拖累盈利表现

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Accumulate" with a target price of RMB 11.90 [1][2]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2024 shows a decline in revenue and net profit due to weak demand in the petrochemical industry, which has negatively impacted the demand for terminal storage tanks and profit margins [2][3]. - Revenue for 1H24 was RMB 740 million, down 4.8% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 130 million, a decrease of 17.1% year-on-year [2][3]. - The report anticipates a slow recovery in demand for the petrochemical industry, leading to a downward adjustment in revenue growth and gross margin assumptions for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H24, the company's terminal storage tank business revenue decreased by 7.0% to RMB 640 million, with gross profit down 18.3% to RMB 330 million, resulting in a gross margin of 51.9%, a decline of 7.2 percentage points year-on-year [3][4]. - The chemical warehouse business also saw a revenue decline of 3.8% to RMB 40 million, while other business segments experienced significant growth due to low base effects from the previous year [3]. Future Outlook - Short-term profitability is under pressure due to the slow recovery in the petrochemical industry, affecting storage tank rental rates and prices [4]. - In the medium to long term, the company aims to develop its core businesses in terminal storage and chemical warehousing through continuous acquisitions and value-added services, enhancing customer loyalty and creating a solid foundation for innovative development [4]. Earnings Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2024 is adjusted to RMB 1.516 billion, a decrease of 16.2% from previous estimates, with net profit forecasted at RMB 260 million, down 27.9% [7][10]. - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 53.0%, down from a previous estimate of 57.0% [7].