博士眼镜：产品、渠道领先，AR赛道布局前瞻

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with projected net profits of 140 million, 170 million, and 200 million yuan for 2024-2026, corresponding to P/E ratios of 34.3X, 28.5X, and 24.8X respectively [1] Core Views - The AR glasses market is experiencing rapid growth, with global and Chinese AR device shipments reaching 510,000 and 200,000 units in 2023, up 37.8% and 53.9% YoY respectively [1] - The company has a significant channel advantage, with a nationwide network of stores and partnerships with major AR players like Huawei, Rokid, and Thunderbird [1] - Customization capabilities in lenses are becoming a key competitive factor, with strong demand for digital, photochromic, and youth myopia control lenses [1] Industry Overview - The AR glasses market is highly concentrated, with the top 5 players accounting for 89.9% of the Chinese market in 2023 [1] - XREAL leads the global consumer AR market with an 81% share in H1 2022 [1] - The global AR device market is expected to reach 5 million units by 2027, with a CAGR of 77.0% from 2023-2027 [14] Company Strategy - The company is strengthening its position in the smart glasses sector through strategic investments and joint ventures, such as the planned collaboration with Thunderbird to develop a domestic version of Meta Ray-Ban [1] - It has established partnerships with multiple AR players, providing online prescription services and offline channel networks [1] - The company is expanding its retail network, with 515 stores nationwide as of 2023, including 495 directly operated stores [28] Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from 1.176 billion yuan in 2023 to 1.771 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 14.6% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 128 million yuan in 2023 to 195 million yuan in 2026 [2] - The company's ROE is forecast to rise from 16.2% in 2023 to 18.5% in 2026 [2] Market Opportunities - The myopia control lens market in China is expected to exceed 30 million units by 2030, with a penetration rate of 30% and a market size of over 60 billion yuan [34] - The presbyopia lens market is driven by aging population and consumption upgrade trends, with annual demand of approximately 40 million pairs in China [36] - Emerging applications such as photochromic, night vision, and blue light blocking lenses present additional growth opportunities [42]