安科生物：新产品开拓有望引领长期增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 10.78, representing a potential upside of 34% from the current price of RMB 8.02 [1][12]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve long-term growth driven by the development of new products, particularly in the oncology treatment sector with the launch of its first antibody drug, trastuzumab [4][5]. - The company has a stable revenue growth outlook, with a projected revenue CAGR of 9% and net profit CAGR of 18% for the years 2023-2026, despite a downward adjustment from previous estimates [4][10]. - The report highlights a decrease in R&D expenses by 26.44% in 1H24, which has contributed to stabilizing net profit growth [4][7]. Financial Summary - For 1H24, the company reported revenue of RMB 1.299 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1%, and a net profit of RMB 416 million, up 5% from the previous year [7][8]. - The company's gross profit margin for 1H24 was 78.2%, reflecting a slight improvement from 77.7% in 1H23 [7]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024E is RMB 0.63, with a slight increase of 6% from previous estimates [9][10]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The revenue forecast for 2024E is adjusted to RMB 2.982 billion, down 18% from previous estimates, while the net profit forecast is increased to RMB 1.048 billion, up 6% [9][10]. - The company’s product segments show varied performance, with biological products expected to generate RMB 2.133 billion in revenue for 2024E, down 23% from previous estimates [11][12]. Valuation - The report employs a two-stage DCF valuation method, resulting in a target price of RMB 10.78, which corresponds to a P/E ratio of 16 for 2025, higher than the average of comparable companies [12][15]. - The report notes that the company’s continuous growth in biological products justifies a premium valuation [12][15].