酒鬼酒：Q2内参回归正常，收入端环比改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price set to achieve a relative return of over 20% within six months [4][13]. Core Insights - The company reported Q2 2024 revenues of 5.00 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 13.27%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 0.48 billion yuan, down 60.87% year-on-year [1]. - The company is expected to see revenue recovery from 2024 to 2026, with projected revenues of 24.3 billion yuan, 27.1 billion yuan, and 29.9 billion yuan respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 3.9 billion yuan, 4.5 billion yuan, and 5.1 billion yuan for the same period [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2024, the company's revenue from various segments was as follows: 1.73 billion yuan from Neican, 5.91 billion yuan from Jiugui, 0.49 billion yuan from Xiangquan, and 1.77 billion yuan from other sources, with respective year-on-year changes of -60.85%, -30.11%, +36.33%, and -17.51% [1]. - The average dealer scale decreased by 12.22% year-on-year to 760,800 yuan per dealer, with a net reduction of 473 dealers to a total of 1,301 [1]. - The company’s gross margin decreased by 2.23 percentage points to 75.59%, while the net margin fell by 11.59 percentage points to 9.52% in Q2 2024 [1]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s projected revenues for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are 2,426.63 million yuan, 2,714.73 million yuan, and 2,989.42 million yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 385.66 million yuan, 449.78 million yuan, and 512.38 million yuan [3][8]. - The company’s P/E ratios for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are projected to be 30.0X, 25.7X, and 22.6X respectively [2][3].