Zoomlion(000157) 光大证券·2024-09-03 23:40Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares [5][6] Core Views - Steady revenue growth with improved profitability: Revenue reached 24.54 billion yuan in H1 2024, up 1.9% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders rose 12.2% YoY to 2.29 billion yuan [2] - Emerging businesses show rapid growth: Earthmoving machinery revenue increased 19.9% YoY, aerial work platforms grew 17.8% YoY, and agricultural machinery surged 112.5% YoY [3] - Overseas market expansion continues: International revenue reached 12.05 billion yuan in H1 2024, up 43.9% YoY, with operations in over 140 countries and regions [4] Financial Performance - Gross margin improved to 28.3%, up 0.4 percentage points YoY, while net margin increased to 10.4%, up 1.1 percentage points YoY [2] - EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted at 0.52/0.66/0.83 yuan, with net profit projections adjusted to 4.51/5.69/7.20 billion yuan [5] - ROE (diluted) is expected to grow from 7.75% in 2024E to 10.97% in 2026E [6] Business Segments - Traditional engineering machinery business declined: Revenue decreased 3.3% YoY to 21.99 billion yuan, with concrete machinery down 7.6% and crane machinery down 17.7% [3] - Strong market positions maintained: Leading market share in multiple product categories including all-terrain cranes, truck cranes, and construction hoists [3] - Emerging businesses gaining traction: Agricultural machinery revenue reached 2.34 billion yuan, with dryer machines ranking first and wheat harvesters second in domestic market share [3] International Expansion - Global presence strengthened: Established industrial parks and production bases in Italy, Germany, Mexico, Brazil, Turkey, and India [4] - Localized operations: Over 3,000 overseas employees and more than 370 secondary service outlets worldwide [4] - Strategic acquisitions leveraged: Utilizing technical advantages from CIFA (Italy), Wilbert (Germany), and other overseas manufacturing bases [4] Valuation Metrics - Current P/E ratios: 12x for A-shares and 7x for H-shares based on 2024E earnings [6] - EV/EBITDA expected to decline from 9.6x in 2024E to 6.4x in 2026E [10] - Dividend yield projected to increase from 4.4% in 2024E to 6.9% in 2026E [10]