浙商证券首次覆盖报告：积极并购，稳健扩张

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Zhejiang Securities with a target price of 12.72 CNY [1][2] Core Views - Zhejiang Securities is accelerating its transformation into a medium-to-large-sized securities firm, supported by the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the 2030 Vision [2] - The company's acquisition of a 34.3% stake in Guodu Securities is expected to open a new chapter in its development, with potential synergies in regional complementarity and Zhongou Fund equity [2] - The company's steady expansion strategy has maintained its ROE stability, ranking it in the top 10 in the industry in 2023 [2] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow steadily, with 2024-2026 revenues forecasted at 18.67/19.51/20.45 billion CNY, representing year-on-year growth of 5.9%/4.5%/4.8% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.88/1.99/2.12 billion CNY for 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth of 7.0%/5.9%/6.7% [2] - EPS is forecasted at 0.48/0.51/0.55 CNY, and BPS at 7.24/7.61/8.00 CNY for 2024-2026 [2] Valuation - The target price of 12.72 CNY is based on a P/B valuation of 1.76x for 2024, considering the company's steady ROE improvement [2][13] - A P/E valuation of 28x for 2024 suggests a fair value of 13.41 CNY, but the report opts for the more conservative P/B valuation [11][13] Business Strategy - Zhejiang Securities aims to become a top 20 securities firm by the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and is striving to break into the top 15 [2][22] - The company has been focusing on wealth management transformation, research business development, and capital replenishment since its IPO [2] - The acquisition of Guodu Securities is seen as a strategic move to enhance regional coverage and strengthen its asset management business through Zhongou Fund [37] Historical Performance - Zhejiang Securities has shown steady growth in market share and profitability, with its ROE ranking improving from 19th in 2019 to 5th in 2024 [20][21] - The company's revenue and net profit market shares have been steadily increasing over the past five years [19] Capital Management - The company has raised capital through multiple channels, including IPOs, convertible bonds, and private placements, to support its expansion [26][27] - Zhejiang Securities has maintained a moderate leverage ratio, with its operating leverage consistently below the industry average [29][30] Synergies from Guodu Securities Acquisition - The acquisition is expected to enhance Zhejiang Securities' regional presence, particularly in Beijing, Shanghai, Henan, and Shandong [36] - The stake in Zhongou Fund is anticipated to strengthen the company's asset management capabilities [37] - The combined entity is projected to rank 20th in total assets and 15th in net profit, aligning with Zhejiang Securities' goal of becoming a top 20 securities firm [38]