卓胜微：Revenue grew while GPM deteriorated due to intense competition and capacity ramp-up

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Maxscend with an adjusted target price (TP) of RMB100, down from the previous TP of RMB174, indicating a potential upside of 50.7% from the current price of RMB66.35 [2][4]. Core Insights - Maxscend's revenue grew by 37% year-over-year (YoY) to RMB2.3 billion in 1H24, primarily driven by clients' restocking behavior, although gross profit margin (GPM) declined to 42.1%, down 6.9 percentage points from 1H23 due to an unfavorable revenue mix and intensified competition [2]. - The discrete products revenue increased by 15% YoY in 1H24, while module products surged by 81% YoY, with module revenue contribution rising from 29% in 2022 to 45% in 1H24 [2]. - Future growth is expected to be driven by the modulization trend in the RFFE sector, with projected module sales growth of 37% and 30% YoY for 2024 and 2025, respectively [2]. - Despite a challenging market environment, Maxscend is anticipated to benefit from the semiconductor localization trend in China, with its fabrication capabilities serving as a cornerstone for long-term development [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY24E, FY25E, and FY26E are RMB5,002 million, RMB6,069 million, and RMB7,154 million, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 6% and 8% from previous estimates for FY25E and FY26E [5][6]. - Gross profit for FY24E is estimated at RMB2,094 million, with a gross margin of 41.9%, while net profit is projected at RMB818 million, translating to an EPS of RMB1.53 [5][6]. - The report indicates a significant reduction in earnings forecasts for 2024 and 2025, with cuts of 31% and 27% due to GPM pressures from a prolonged price war [2][5].