Eastroc Beverage(SH:605499) Shanghai Securities·2024-09-04 02:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [2] Core Views - The company has shown robust growth in the first half of 2024, with a focus on expanding its market presence beyond Guangdong while solidifying its core energy drink segment. The diversification of its product matrix and multi-channel promotion strategies have fostered consumer trust and repeat purchases. The company is transitioning from a single-category to a multi-category beverage group, with projected revenues of 15.345 billion, 19.486 billion, and 23.217 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 36.25%, 26.98%, and 19.15% [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 7.873 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.17%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.731 billion yuan, up 72.34% year-on-year, with a significant increase in the second quarter [2][3] - The core product, Dongpeng Energy Drink, continued to grow steadily, with a revenue increase of 33.49% year-on-year, while the new product line, Dongpeng Water, expanded rapidly, contributing 476 million yuan in revenue [2][3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 11.263 billion yuan for 2023, with a growth rate of 32.4%, and expects to reach 15.345 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 36.2% [4][5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 2.040 billion yuan in 2023, increasing to 2.895 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 41.6% [4][5] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin is expected to improve from 43.1% in 2023 to 45.5% in 2026, while the net margin is projected to rise from 18.1% to 20.4% over the same period [6] - The return on equity is forecasted to be 32.3% in 2023, increasing to 38.1% by 2026, indicating strong profitability [6] Cash Flow and Financial Health - The company is expected to generate operating cash flow of 3.281 billion yuan in 2023, increasing to 6.469 billion yuan by 2026, demonstrating strong cash generation capabilities [7] - The total assets are projected to grow from 14.710 billion yuan in 2023 to 22.769 billion yuan in 2026, indicating a solid financial position [5][7]