株冶集团：老牌冶炼公司，新增金银等资源属性

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to Zhuye Group (600961) [1] Core Views - Zhuye Group is a veteran smelting company that has recently added resource attributes through asset restructuring, gaining access to lead, zinc, gold, and silver resources [3] - The company's lead-zinc smelting business is expected to maintain stable profitability in the medium to long term due to its low-cost advantage [3] - The company's mines have high grades of associated gold and silver, which could provide earnings elasticity as commodity prices rise [3] - The company's mines have expansion potential, with the Shuikoushan lead-zinc mine expected to reach full capacity of 800,000 tons per year after technical upgrades [3] - The company's zinc smelting costs are industry-leading, which helps it navigate market cycles [3] Financial Performance and Valuation - The company's revenue is expected to grow from RMB 19.4 billion in 2023 to RMB 22.8 billion in 2026, with net profit increasing from RMB 611 million to RMB 1 billion over the same period [5] - EPS is forecasted to rise from RMB 0.57 in 2023 to RMB 0.94 in 2026 [5] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 8.5% in 2023 to 10.1% in 2026 [5] - Based on comparable company valuations, the report assigns a target price range of RMB 10.39-11.08 per share for 2024, representing a PE multiple of 15-16x [4] Business Segments - Gold ingot business: Revenue expected to grow from RMB 1.35 billion in 2023 to RMB 2.29 billion in 2026, with gross margins ranging from 33-38% [7] - Silver ingot business: Revenue projected to increase from RMB 1.41 billion in 2023 to RMB 2.27 billion in 2026, with gross margins around 28-29% [7] - Zinc and zinc alloy business: Revenue forecasted to grow from RMB 11.32 billion in 2023 to RMB 12.41 billion in 2026, with gross margins improving from 0% in 2024 to 3% in 2026 [7] Industry Context - The zinc smelting industry is facing challenges due to tight zinc concentrate supply and low processing fees, with some smelters reducing or halting production [3] - The report expects zinc processing fees to stabilize and recover in the second half of 2024, returning to normal levels in 2025-2026 [6] - Gold and silver prices are expected to rise in 2024-2026 due to potential Fed rate cuts and lower real interest rates [6]