Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory (SH:600809) Haitong Securities·2024-09-04 06:12Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the company achieved total revenue of 22.746 billion yuan in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.7%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 8.410 billion yuan, up 24.3% year-on-year [5] - The company continues to show strong growth potential in national expansion and e-commerce channels, with mid-to-high-end liquor and other liquor categories seeing revenue growth of 17.4% and 27.4% respectively in H1 2024 [6] - Effective cost control has led to sustained improvement in profitability, with a gross margin increase of 0.4 percentage points to 76.7% in H1 2024 [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company reported total revenue of 7.408 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.1%, and a net profit of 2.147 billion yuan, up 10.2% year-on-year [5] - The company’s gross margin for H1 2024 was 76.7%, with a net profit margin of 37.0%, reflecting a 1.4 percentage point increase year-on-year [6][7] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor in H1 2024 was 16.427 billion yuan, while other liquor categories generated 6.233 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 17.4% and 27.4% [6] - The company’s revenue from domestic and foreign markets in H1 2024 grew by 11.4% and 25.7% respectively [6] Cost Management - The report indicates that selling and administrative expenses have been well managed, with respective rates decreasing by 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points to 8.8% and 2.7% [6] - The net cash flow from operating activities in Q2 2024 was 889 million yuan, down 49.9% year-on-year, influenced by a high base from the previous year [6] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to have earnings per share (EPS) of 10.56, 12.72, and 15.20 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [7] - The report assigns a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20-25 times for 2024, suggesting a reasonable value range of 211.15 to 263.94 yuan per share [7]