华新水泥2024年中报点评:海外及骨料中流砥柱,支撑业绩韧性

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Increase" (maintained) [5][9]. Core Views - The domestic cement industry is experiencing a downturn in the first half of 2024, putting pressure on the company's domestic cement business [5]. - The company's overseas business has seen significant growth, with revenue increasing by 55.41% year-on-year, supporting overall performance [6]. - Non-cement business revenue has risen to 47% of total revenue, with aggregate business growth contributing significantly to profit [6][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 16.237 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.56%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 38.74% to 731 million yuan [7]. - Domestic cement business revenue fell by 31.57% to 5.106 billion yuan, primarily due to declines in both sales volume and prices [7]. - The company’s overseas cement business generated 3.578 billion yuan in revenue, marking a 55.41% increase year-on-year, driven by a 47% increase in overseas sales volume [7]. Business Segments - The company is accelerating its overseas expansion, with ongoing projects in Mozambique and other African countries, which are expected to significantly increase production capacity [7]. - The aggregate business has seen a sales volume increase of 41.60%, with a gross profit margin of 47.41%, contributing to the company's profitability [8]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 34.737 billion yuan, 37.826 billion yuan, and 41.409 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 2.502 billion yuan, 2.835 billion yuan, and 3.234 billion yuan [9][10]. - The company is expected to maintain a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.89, 7.85, and 6.88 for the years 2024-2026 [10][12].