Investment Rating - Target price set at 96.11 [23] Core Views - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised downward to RMB 4,124 billion, RMB 5,210 billion, and RMB 6,344 billion, respectively, from previous estimates of RMB 4,582 billion, RMB 6,221 billion, and RMB 7,681 billion [2] - Operating profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to RMB 1,206 billion, RMB 1,508 billion, and RMB 1,863 billion, down from RMB 1,352 billion, RMB 1,856 billion, and RMB 2,334 billion [2] - The company is expected to focus on GMV growth, sacrificing short-term profits to build a long-term platform ecosystem [11] Financial Performance - Q2 2024 revenue reached RMB 970.60 billion, up 86% YoY, but missed market expectations [32] - Online marketing services revenue grew 29% YoY to RMB 491.16 billion, while transaction services revenue surged 234% YoY to RMB 479.44 billion, driven by Temu's growth [32] - Operating profit for Q2 2024 was RMB 325.65 billion, up 156% YoY, with an operating margin of 33.6% [32] - Non-GAAP operating margin reached a historical high of 36.0% in Q2 2024 [32] - Net profit for Q2 2024 was RMB 320.09 billion, up 144% YoY, with a net margin of 33.0% [32] Domestic Business Challenges - Domestic e-commerce market faces challenges due to rational consumption and intensified competition [11] - Online retail sales of physical goods grew 8.8% YoY in H1 2024, while per capita consumption expenditure declined by 3.3 percentage points to 5.0% in Q2 2024 [11] - The company plans to increase investments and is not considering stock buybacks or dividend plans in the near term [11] Overseas Business Progress - Temu's global sales approached 50 billion [21] - The overseas business is nearing breakeven, with losses narrowing sequentially [21] - Logistics and marketing costs dominate the overseas cost structure, but fulfillment costs are expected to decline as the semi-hosted business expands [21] - Growth in the US market will rely more on organic traffic, with advertising efforts focused on non-US markets [21] Valuation and Financial Metrics - The company's market capitalization stands at 164.69/$88.01 [23] - The EV/EBITDA ratio is 12.0, with an enterprise value of RMB 2,235.56 billion [16] - Non-GAAP gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 65.8%-67.1% from 2024 to 2026 [29] - Non-GAAP operating margin is projected to improve to 32.0% in 2024, up from 26.6% in 2023 [29] Key Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is expected to grow from RMB 412.43 billion in 2024 to RMB 634.35 billion in 2026 [12] - Operating profit is forecasted to increase from RMB 120.65 billion in 2024 to RMB 186.30 billion in 2026 [12] - EPS is projected to rise from RMB 87.1 in 2024 to RMB 134.3 in 2026 [2]
拼多多：电商市场竞争白热化，短期牺牲利润换成长