老凤祥：盈利表现超预期，经营韧性凸显

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 67.35 CNY, based on a 15x PE valuation for 2024 [2][4][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 39.96 billion CNY for H1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 0.95%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.404 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.3%. In Q2 2024, revenue and net profit growth rates were -9.2% and 8.07%, respectively, with Q2 profit performance exceeding expectations [1]. - The increase in gold prices has positively impacted the company's gross margin, which rose by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year to 9.2% in H1 2024. Specifically, Q1 and Q2 gross margins increased by 0.3 and 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, respectively, with a notable improvement in Q2 attributed to a surge in gold prices in March [1]. - As of H1 2024, the company has a total of 6,022 marketing outlets, including 15 overseas stores, with a net increase of 28 outlets since the beginning of the year. The company aims to add no less than 300 new specialty stores and distribution points throughout 2024 [1]. - The company is actively implementing reforms to enhance operational vitality, including the execution of a three-year action plan for high-quality development (2023-2025) and the selection of second-round professional managers for 13 subsidiaries [1]. - Despite a challenging market environment in Q2 2024, the company's performance demonstrates operational resilience, and it is expected to meet its 2024 budget targets, projecting a 5% year-on-year revenue growth and a 4% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders [1]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue for 2023 is projected at 71.436 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 13.4%. For 2024, revenue is expected to reach 74.984 billion CNY, reflecting a 5% growth [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is estimated at 2.214 billion CNY, a 30.2% increase year-on-year, with projections of 2.347 billion CNY for 2024, indicating a 6% growth [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is forecasted to be 4.49 CNY, with subsequent years showing an increase to 4.94 CNY in 2025 and 5.47 CNY in 2026 [2][3][8].