长虹美菱：改革赋能，老牌国企焕发新生

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Strong Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 10.9 CNY, compared to the current price of 8.72 CNY [1][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights the internal reforms and external business improvements of the company since 2019, focusing on marketing, logistics, channels, and procurement to enhance operational efficiency [5][14]. - The company is expected to benefit from domestic policy subsidies, particularly in the home appliance sector, with projected retail growth rates of 14% to 47% under different scenarios [1][5]. - The company has a strong growth trajectory in both domestic and international markets, with significant potential in emerging markets [1][5]. Summary by Sections Internal Governance - The company has implemented various reforms to improve operational efficiency, including the establishment of a China regional platform for marketing, which reduced the sales expense ratio from 15% in Q1 2018 to 5% in Q2 2024 [1][5]. - Logistics and supply chain management have been strengthened, leading to a doubling of inventory turnover from 2018 to 2023 [1][5]. - The company has shifted focus from traditional retail to e-commerce and lower-tier markets, enhancing sales growth [1][5]. Domestic Market - The company has seen a steady increase in market share for air conditioners, rising from 3% in early 2020 to approximately 5% in 2024, aided by partnerships with Xiaomi and competitive pricing [1][5]. - The refrigerator segment has benefited from product upgrades, with the proportion of high-capacity and embedded models increasing significantly, leading to a price increase exceeding 20% [1][5]. International Expansion - The company has experienced robust growth in appliance exports, particularly in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, with a focus on emerging markets to mitigate risks associated with potential tariffs [1][5]. - The export share of the company has increased from 21.3% in 2018 to 32.2% in the first half of 2024, indicating a successful international strategy [1][5]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 8.4 billion CNY, 9.7 billion CNY, and 11.0 billion CNY for the years 2024 to 2026, with corresponding growth rates of 12.94%, 15.69%, and 13.36% [6][1]. - The report anticipates a market capitalization of 110 billion CNY by 2026, representing a 23% increase from the market cap as of September 3, 2023 [1][6].