LZLJ(SZ:000568) Orient Securities·2024-09-04 14:12Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][2][6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 16.9 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 8.03 billion yuan, up 13.2% year-on-year. In Q2 alone, revenue was 7.72 billion yuan (+10.5%) and net profit was 3.45 billion yuan (+2.2%) [1] - The growth rate of mid-to-high-end liquor is expected to slow down in Q2, with a shift in product structure. Mid-to-high-end liquor achieved revenue of 15.2 billion yuan in H1 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 17.1%. The growth is expected to be higher in the first half and lower in the second half of the year [1] - The gross profit margin remains stable, but fluctuations in tax rates have temporarily pressured profitability. The gross profit margin for H1 2024 was 88.6%, a year-on-year increase of 0.2 percentage points [1] - The company has a well-established product system and is deepening its focus on key markets, enhancing its ability to withstand risks. The company is expected to see steady progress in dealer repayments with the upcoming festive seasons [1] Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Based on the H1 2024 report, the revenue and gross margin forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised downwards. The projected earnings per share for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 10.22 yuan, 12.28 yuan, and 14.43 yuan respectively, down from previous estimates [2][6] - The company is given a target price of 153.30 yuan based on a 15 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2024, maintaining the "Buy" rating [2][6]