WGQ(600648) 华福证券·2024-09-05 01:01Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Waigaoqiao (600648 SH) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of RMB 11 69, based on a 13x PE multiple for 2024 [6][7] Core Views - Waigaoqiao is a comprehensive operator in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone with a 30-year history of bonded zone operations The company has raised its dividend payout ratio to 50%, reflecting its high-dividend characteristics [1] - The company's three main businesses are property leasing, trade and services, and real estate development and sales Property leasing serves as the cornerstone of its revenue, while real estate sales are subject to fluctuations due to project delivery schedules [1][2] - The company's trade and logistics business has seen improved gross margins, supported by the "Global Hub" platform, which facilitates cross-border e-commerce under the "Silk Road E-commerce" initiative [3] - The real estate development business focuses on the Senlan brand, with high-end residential projects contributing to future revenue growth [4] Property Leasing Business - Waigaoqiao holds 4 71 million square meters of leasing assets, with a vacancy rate that has been declining The company plans to deliver 400,000 square meters of industrial properties over the next two years [2] - Industrial leasing accounts for over 80% of the leasing revenue, with gross margins steadily increasing The company's leasing business is supported by the "Three Foundations and Four Key Industries" strategy, ensuring stable future income [2] - The company's leasing revenue in 2023 reached RMB 1 78 billion, a 24 5% YoY increase, with industrial leasing contributing RMB 1 44 billion and commercial leasing contributing RMB 340 million [48] Trade and Services Business - Waigaoqiao's bonded zone ranks among the top in China for import and export volume, accounting for 40% of Pudong New Area's and 25% of Shanghai's total import and export volume [3] - The trade and services segment saw a 10 6 percentage point increase in gross margin from 2019 to 2023, reaching 22 1% The "Global Hub" platform, launched in 2022, has become a core carrier for "Silk Road E-commerce" [3] - The company's trade and services revenue in 2023 was RMB 3 42 billion, with a gross margin of 22 1%, driven by higher-margin import and export agency and logistics businesses [3] Real Estate Development Business - The real estate development business focuses on the Senlan area, with revenue fluctuations due to project delivery cycles In 2023, the segment generated RMB 1 69 billion in revenue, a 42 2% YoY decline [4] - The company has 600,000 square meters of residential project reserves, including high-end low-density residential projects in the Senlan area, which are expected to contribute significant future revenue [4] - The Senlan Island project, with a planned first-phase sale of 30,000 square meters, is expected to generate RMB 3-3 6 billion in revenue based on surrounding property prices of RMB 100,000-120,000 per square meter [4] Financial Projections - The report forecasts revenue growth of 6%, 0%, and 19% for 2024-2026, with net profit growth of 10%, -9%, and 54%, respectively EPS is projected to be RMB 0 90, RMB 0 82, and RMB 1 26 for the same period [6] - The property leasing business is expected to grow at 11 8%, 8 0%, and 8 0% from 2024-2026, with gross margins of 38 8%, 38 6%, and 39 5% [67] - The real estate sales business is projected to grow at 5 4%, -16 8%, and 83 7% from 2024-2026, with gross margins of 58 0%, 57 0%, and 60 0% [67] - The trade and services business is expected to grow at 3 0% annually from 2024-2026, with gross margins of 22 1%, 22 5%, and 22 5% [67]