CFMOTO(603129) 财通证券·2024-09-05 00:03Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating [1] Core Views - The company is a leader in both two-wheel and four-wheel vehicles, benefiting from changes in domestic and international consumption structures [2] - The company has been deepening its global market layout, with revenue and profit growing at a CAGR of +36.61% and +52.98% respectively from 2018 to 2023 [2] - The company's product portfolio is continuously improving, with high-value U/Z series products accounting for 65% of sales in 2023, up from 10.4% in 2016 [2] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.375 billion, 1.682 billion, and 2.123 billion yuan in 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 36.44%, 22.35%, and 26.24% respectively [3] Business Overview - The company is a domestic leader in all-terrain vehicles (ATVs) and medium-to-large displacement motorcycles, with ATVs accounting for 54% of revenue and motorcycles for 37% in 2023 [2] - The company has a well-established product portfolio, including ATVs, UTVs, and SSVs, catering to various market demands [19] - The company has been expanding its global presence, with overseas revenue accounting for 60% of total revenue, primarily from North America and Europe [26] Market Performance - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 12.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.44%, with a CAGR of 36.61% from 2018 to 2023 [23] - Net profit in 2023 reached 1.008 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.65%, with a CAGR of 52.98% from 2018 to 2023 [23] - The company's gross profit margin for ATVs and motorcycles reached 39.52% and 24.64% respectively in 2023, showing significant improvement [25] Product Development - The company has been optimizing its product structure, with high-value U/Z series products accounting for 65% of ATV sales in 2023, up from 10.4% in 2016 [2] - The company has been launching new products, such as the CFORCE 1000T and ZFORCE 950 Sport 4, which offer competitive advantages in terms of performance and pricing [48][49] - The company has been expanding its product line, with new models like the UFORCE U10 PRO and ZFORCE Z10, which are expected to drive future growth [46] Global Expansion - The company has been deepening its global market layout, with overseas revenue accounting for 60% of total revenue, primarily from North America and Europe [26] - The company has established manufacturing bases in Thailand and Mexico, which have helped reduce tariff pressures and improve competitiveness [21] - The company has over 4,000 global retail and dealer outlets, with more than 1,700 overseas channels for motorcycles [3] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.375 billion, 1.682 billion, and 2.123 billion yuan in 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 36.44%, 22.35%, and 26.24% respectively [3] - The company's revenue is projected to grow to 15.085 billion, 18.158 billion, and 21.558 billion yuan in 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 24.56%, 20.37%, and 18.72% respectively [3] Industry Trends - The global ATV market is expected to reach 19.32 billion USD by 2030, with a CAGR of 9.14% from 2020 to 2030 [34] - The global motorcycle market is projected to reach 172.8 billion USD by 2029, with a CAGR of 3.5% from 2014 to 2029 [52] - The Chinese motorcycle market has been recovering post-pandemic, with sales reaching 19.13 million units in 2022, a recent high [53]