摘要 2026Q1 乘用车行业量利双压，预计批发量同比-8%，新能源车微降， 出口同比+55%成唯一亮点。 成本端受铜、铝、碳酸锂涨价及人民币升值双重挤压，一季度为行业全 年量利低点，多数车企利润同比降幅>20%。 吉利汽车表现亮眼，Q1 利润预期>40 亿元，环比增 10%+，主因吉利 9X 高盈利及出口同比+140%驱动。 重卡行业出口强劲，1-2 月同比+30%，中国重汽 A 股 Q1 利润预增 60%至 5 亿元，非洲及东南亚市场翻倍增长。 智能化板块优于整车，华阳集团受益小米汽车放量及 HUD 等新业务， Q1 业绩预增 20%；金龙汽车出口翻倍，利润预达 1.5 亿元。 零部件板块分化，福耀、星宇等海外拓展领先者压力较小；金固股份受 益铝价上涨带来的钢轮替代效应，Q2 迎拐点。 两轮车大排量出口维持高增，春风动力 Q1 出口同比+60%，但受全地 形车关税影响，整体业绩预计同比持平。 汽车行业 2026 一季度业绩前瞻 20260322 Q&A 对于 2026 年的汽车行业，整体投资策略和主要推荐的主线是什么？ 2026 年汽车行业正处于技术创新与需求周期的切换阶段，板块内部的新闻主 线较为发散， ...

老铺黄金 2025 年收入同比增 217%-229%，经调整净利润增 233%- 240%，2026 年 1-2 月终端销售维持大双位数增长。 公司已脱离传统金价定价逻辑，2026 年 2 月底提价后，二手市场价格 体系与国际奢侈品一致，弱化了金价波动对品牌的影响。 高净值客群贡献核心业绩，年消费 40 万+顶级客群波动幅度仅为普通高 客的 1/5，公司与国际五大奢侈品牌消费者重合率达 77%。 古法黄金赛道高景气，2018-2023 年 CAGR 达 65%，老铺黄金凭借手 工工艺与高客单价摆件 SKU 实现显著优于同业的稀缺性。 2026 年 3 月金价同比提升约 50%，公司通过提价消化成本压力，预计 2026 年净利润同比增长 40%以上，对应 PE 约 14 倍。 公司 2026 年起加大高客服务投入，组建专业团队精准识别顶级客群， 利用黄金保值属性承接奢侈品消费需求。 Q&A 在金价快速上涨的周期中，相较于传统黄金品牌，老铺黄金的市场表现如何？ 其高端定位和奢侈品属性在其中扮演了怎样的角色？ 在金价上涨周期中，老铺黄金天然受益。从行业层面看，金价快速上升阶段， 终端消费结构虽有向投资金（如金币、金 ...

01 事件概述 据中国摩托车 商会数据，2026年2月250cc（不含）以上摩托车销量4.6万辆，同比-20.5%，环比-28.1%。1-2月累计销量11.0万辆，同比-6.0%。 02 分析判断 ► 行业： 受春节假期影响 中大排月度销量阶段性承压 出口表现优于内销 1）125cc（不含）以上 ： 2月销量48.0万辆，同比+3.9%，环比-28.3%，主要增量来自于110-125cc及150-200cc，春风动力、隆鑫通用等头部企业均贡献明显增量； 2）250cc（不含）以上： 2月销量4.6万辆，同比-20.5%，环比-28.1%。1-2月累 计 销量11.0万辆，同比-6.0%。其中： 出口： 250cc+摩托车 2月出口3.4万辆，同比-8.5%，环比-24.0%，1-2月累计出口7.9万辆，同比+3.7%。 内销： 250cc+摩托车 2月内销1.2万辆，同比-42.8%，环比-38.1%，1-2月累计内销3.0万辆，同比-24.5% 。 ► 结构： 500cc+ 排量车型增长强劲 自主高端化提速 2）400cc<排量≤500cc ： 2月销售0.9万辆（其中春风0.5万辆），同比-14.7%，环 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Auto Sector**, specifically analyzing companies involved in **AIDC engines**, **heavy-duty trucks (HDT)**, and **electric two-wheelers (e-2W)**. Key companies mentioned include **Weichai Power (2338.HK)**, **China Yuchai International (CYI.US)**, **Sinotruk - H (3808.HK)**, **Ninebot (689009.SH)**, and **CFMoto (603129.SH)** [2][3][7][11][18]. Core Insights and Arguments AIDC Engine Market - **Weichai Power** is expected to see its AIDC engine sales volume grow at more than a **30% CAGR** from 2025 to 2028, driven by robust demand in both China and the US, with **50% of its volume growth** coming from outside China [6][10]. - The **global AIDC engine market** is projected to expand at a **20%+ CAGR** from 2024 to 2028, with Chinese OEMs expected to add **30-50%** to their capacity [10]. - **Yuchai** is anticipated to maintain a **40-50% market share** in China's AIDC engine market due to its cost advantages and strong client relationships [10]. Heavy-Duty Truck (HDT) Market - **Sinotruk** is forecasted to increase its overseas sales volume from approximately **153k units in 2025** to **250k units by 2030** [12]. - The global total addressable market (TAM) for Chinese HDTs is estimated at around **800k units**, with Sinotruk expected to maintain a **45% market share** in HDT exports [17]. - Export profitability for Sinotruk is higher than domestic sales, with **70-80% of net profit** derived from HDT exports [17]. Electric Two-Wheelers (e-2W) Market - **Ninebot** is experiencing rapid growth in the e-2W market, outpacing competitors like Niu and Zeeho [20]. - The company is also venturing into the robotic lawn mower market, which could represent a **TAM of Rmb50-60 billion** by 2030, significantly increasing from the current size of **Rmb20-30 billion** [20]. Additional Important Insights - **Pricing Dynamics**: AIDC engines in China are sold at only **one-third the price** of similar products in the US and EU, allowing Weichai to leverage price and margin premiums in these markets [6]. - **Market Share Projections**: By 2028, Yuchai is expected to increase its engine market share from **27% to 53%**, while Weichai's share is projected to rise from **12% to 30%** [9]. - **Risks**: The heavy-duty truck industry faces cyclical risks, including economic growth fluctuations and changes in environmental policies [27]. For the e-2W sector, risks include potential shifts in transport preferences and fierce price competition [26][30]. Conclusion The conference call highlights significant growth opportunities in the China Auto Sector, particularly in AIDC engines, heavy-duty trucks, and electric two-wheelers. Companies like Weichai, Yuchai, Sinotruk, and Ninebot are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, although they must navigate various market risks and competitive pressures.

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the electric low-speed vehicle sector, high displacement motorcycle exports, and structural upgrades in electric two-wheelers [3][8]. Core Insights - The electric low-speed vehicle market is experiencing high demand, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25% from 2024 to 2029. The all-terrain vehicle (ATV) market is stabilizing, while the motorcycle market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.5% from 2014 to 2029. The electric two-wheeler market is entering a phase dominated by replacement demand, with global shipments expected to reach approximately 70 million units in 2024, of which 81.9% will be from China [5][17][27]. Summary by Sections Market Comparison - The all-terrain vehicle market is entering maturity, primarily driven by the North American market and a shift towards UTV & SSV products, which are expected to account for 65% of sales by 2024. The low-speed four-wheeler market is the fastest-growing segment, with a projected market size of $1.4 billion in 2024. The motorcycle market is stabilizing, with a projected global market size of $16.77 billion by 2028. The electric two-wheeler market is expected to see a modest growth of 3.9% in 2024, with a focus on replacement demand [5][17][20][27]. Competitive Landscape - The all-terrain vehicle market is characterized by regional concentration and dominance of American brands, while the low-speed four-wheeler market shows high brand concentration with Club Car, E-Z-GO, and Yamaha holding about 50% market share. The motorcycle market is fragmented, with Japanese brands holding a combined market share of 36.5% in 2023. The electric two-wheeler market in China has formed a duopoly with Yadea and Aima accounting for nearly 50% of the market [5][17][20][27]. Core Competitiveness Analysis - Electric two-wheelers face significant product homogeneity and rely heavily on distribution channels, with consumer preferences focusing on design and smart features. The electric low-speed vehicle market is smaller but has a concentrated brand presence, while the all-terrain vehicle market emphasizes product functionality and price sensitivity. The motorcycle sector is transitioning from a utility to a lifestyle product, with consumers prioritizing engine performance and displacement [7][8][27]. Company Comparisons and Investment Recommendations - The report highlights that the electric low-speed vehicle sector maintains high demand, while high displacement motorcycle exports still have growth potential. The electric two-wheeler industry is advised to focus on structural upgrade opportunities. Recommended companies include Longxin General and Chuanfeng for motorcycles, and Ninebot and Aima for electric two-wheelers, emphasizing their competitive strategies in branding and channel management [8][17][27].

证券代码：603129 证券简称：春风动力 公告编号：2026-006 浙江春风动力股份有限公司 关于 2024 年股票期权激励计划首次授予第一个行权期 行权结果暨股份上市公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性依法承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 本次股票上市类型为股权激励股份；股票认购方式为网下，上市股数为 905,100股。 本次股票上市流通总数为905,100股。 本次股票上市流通日期为2026 年 3 月 23 日。 一、2024 年股票期权激励计划的决策程序及相关信息披露 1、2024 年 8 月 6 日，公司召开第五届董事会第十六次会议和第五届监事会第 十七次会议，审议通过了《关于<浙江春风动力股份有限公司 2024 年股票期权激 励计划（草案）>及其摘要的议案》、《关于<浙江春风动力股份有限公司 2024 年股 票期权激励计划实施考核管理办法>的议案》、《关于提请股东大会授权董事会办理 公司股权激励计划相关事项的议案》等相关议案，上述议案已经公司第五届董事 会薪酬与考核委员会第十次会议无异议通过。上海君澜律师事务所 ...

1 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 联合研究丨公司深度丨春风动力（603129.SH） [Table_Title] 解构龙头系列之八：如何看待春风动力底层能力 和增长潜力？ %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 春风动力作为全球主要的娱乐休闲动力设备制造商，具备扎实的底层技术能力，在发动机、车 架等核心领域拥有自主创新能力，并能实现核心技术的跨品类应用。公司的增长基本盘在于全 地形车业务，其凭借突出的产品力与性价比优势，市场份额持续提升，并通过持续迭代的新品 有望开启新一轮产品周期。增长新动能方面，电动两轮车业务尚处快速成长初期；燃油摩托车 则是更明确的增长引擎，内销市场依托产品与渠道优势把握结构升级机遇，外销市场则通过"高 性价比产品+顶级赛事品牌"的双轮驱动模式，有效提升全球品牌形象并吸引优质渠道资源。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490517070017 SAC：S0490517060001 SFC：BUW408 SFC：BUW101 陈亮 高伊楠 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [42]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in passenger vehicle demand due to the implementation of subsidy policies, with a positive outlook for the passenger vehicle sector in Q1 2026. It emphasizes the importance of selecting resilient domestic companies and those with strong export capabilities [32][33]. - For heavy trucks, the report anticipates a sales volume of 800,000 to 850,000 units in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3%. It recommends leading companies in the heavy truck sector [35]. - The bus sector is expected to see a growth in sales to 40,000 units in 2026, driven by the continuation of subsidy policies and the need for fleet renewal [36]. - The motorcycle market is projected to grow by 14% in total sales, with a significant increase in large-displacement motorcycles, particularly in export markets [33]. Summary by Sections Passenger Vehicles - The report expects a recovery in passenger vehicle demand in Q1 2026 due to subsidy policies, with a focus on high-end electric vehicle manufacturers such as Jianghuai Automobile, Geely, Great Wall, and others [32][33]. - The report suggests prioritizing companies with proven execution capabilities in overseas markets, recommending BYD, Great Wall, and Chery for export [32]. Heavy Trucks - In 2025, the wholesale volume reached 1.144 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26.8%. The report forecasts a sales volume of 800,000 to 850,000 units for 2026, a 3% increase year-on-year [35]. - Recommended companies include China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, Weichai Power, and others [35]. Buses - The report indicates that the bus subsidy policy has exceeded expectations, with a projected sales increase to 40,000 units in 2026, a 40% year-on-year growth [36]. - Key recommendations include Yutong Bus and King Long [36]. Motorcycles - The motorcycle industry is expected to achieve total sales of 19.38 million units in 2026, a 14% increase, with large-displacement motorcycles projected to grow by 31% [33]. - Recommended companies include Chunfeng Power and Longxin General [33].

那么这块的话，可能潜在的这个拓展的这个机会可能是一个中长期持续的去扩 份额的一个状态。当然当前的话可能大的增量部分可能其实主要是来自于这个 海外。那么从阶段性来看的话，其实因为去年的话，珠峰的话在这个摩托车上 面的话，整个的因为新品的这个退出节奏有所延后，再叠加这个海外的话，就 是有这样一个经销商切换切换的一个过程。那么这个经营端有些波动，那么今 年来看的话，其实整个也是新品的一个大年，那么可能也会有这样一个新品驱 动带来这样一个相对比较快速的一个修复性的一个增长。 春风动力 20260306-原始纪要 陈亮 长江证券家电分析师: 各位投资者大家晚上好，我是长江家电分析师陈亮。那么今晚汇报我们结构的 投资，春风动力。那么春风动力的话，其实核心的这个业务体系主要是三大块， 第一块的话就是它这个全地形车业务，那么这一块的话是属于公司目前底盘相 对来说竞争优势比较凸显的一个业务。那么增长的势能趋势也会不错。那么掌 握未来两三年来看的话，可能还是会保持一个 20%左右的一个增长。那么当前 的话，因为全地形车这个行业的话，是一个全球量相对来说比较稳定的一个赛 道，那么春风的话，那么主要是凭借这样一个性价比的一个优势，那 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the macroeconomic outlook and government policies impacting various sectors, particularly focusing on the construction, energy, and real estate industries. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **GDP Growth Target**: The GDP growth target for 2026 is set at 4.5%-5.0%, aligning with expectations. However, there is a notable gap in fiscal spending versus debt increase, necessitating reliance on tax revenue recovery and central government support for local tax sources [1][2][3]. 2. **Dual Carbon Policy**: The dual carbon policy has shifted from "energy consumption control" to "carbon emission control," enhancing quantitative constraints. This is expected to benefit sectors like carbon accounting software, carbon trading, smart grids, and hydrogen energy [1][4]. 3. **Coal Sector Outlook**: The coal sector is viewed as having a "second growth curve," driven by AI-related electricity demand growth, which offsets dual carbon pressures. Domestic and import supply reductions are anticipated, with coal prices expected to rise from a bottoming phase, suggesting over 50% upside potential for coal stocks [1][20][21]. 4. **Debt Market Expectations**: The bond market has already priced in the subdued fiscal expectations, with a short-term forecast for 10-year government bond yields to retreat to 1.85%-1.9%. There remains room for interest rate cuts throughout the year [1][12][14]. 5. **Construction and Building Materials**: The focus is on major projects under the "15th Five-Year Plan," with significant investment opportunities in western development, major canals, and high-standard farmland construction. The construction materials sector is nearing a profitability inflection point, with leading companies like Oriental Yuhong expected to benefit [1][22][26]. 6. **Consumer Sector Trends**: Consumer spending is expected to show a "high-low" rhythm, with potential weakness in Q2. Opportunities in high-end travel and service consumption are highlighted, particularly with the expansion of spring break trials [2][15]. 7. **Investment Directions**: The report emphasizes investment in new infrastructure, urbanization, and livelihood improvements, with a focus on projects like major railways and hydropower. The total investment in these areas is projected to exceed 8 trillion yuan [22][24]. 8. **Real Estate Policy Changes**: The real estate sector's focus has shifted from risk prevention to stabilizing the market, with a new emphasis on a "people-centered" approach. The reform of housing provident funds is highlighted as a key support mechanism [27][30][31]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Tax Revenue Recovery**: The anticipated recovery in tax revenue due to price increases and economic expansion is crucial for addressing the fiscal gap [2][3]. 2. **AI and Energy Demand**: The demand for coal is expected to increase due to AI-driven electricity needs, indicating a shift in energy consumption patterns [20]. 3. **Urban Renewal Initiatives**: The report outlines significant urban renewal projects, with a focus on old neighborhood renovations and infrastructure safety, potentially driving demand for construction materials [23][34]. 4. **Green Energy Initiatives**: The introduction of "green fuels" and a multi-energy approach is noted, with major state-owned enterprises involved in clean energy projects [24]. 5. **Market Sentiment**: The overall market sentiment reflects cautious optimism, with expectations for gradual recovery in various sectors, particularly in construction and real estate [1][10][12]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the macroeconomic environment and sector-specific developments that may influence investment strategies moving forward.