国药一致：整体业绩承压，分销业务相对稳健

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook on its stock performance [3][4] Core Views - The company's overall performance is under pressure, but its distribution business remains relatively stable [3] - The retail segment is facing challenges due to industry policy changes, increased competition, and internal adjustments, leading to a significant decline in profitability [3] - The company's distribution business shows steady revenue growth, but profits have slightly declined due to delayed receivables and increased funding costs [3] - The retail segment, represented by "Guoda Pharmacy," experienced a 9.3% YoY decline in revenue and a 104.8% YoY drop in net profit in H1 2024 [3] - The company has maintained a steady pace of store expansion, with 18,602 stores as of June 30, 2024, and a net increase of 186 stores in H1 2024 [3] Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company reported revenue of 37.79 billion yuan, a 1.6% YoY decrease, and a net profit of 740 million yuan, a 10.5% YoY decline [3] - The distribution business generated 27.08 billion yuan in revenue, a 2.1% YoY increase, but net profit fell by 1.5% to 520 million yuan [3] - The retail segment reported a net loss of 14 million yuan, a 107.5% YoY decline in net profit attributable to the parent company [3] - The company's gross margin decreased by 0.6 percentage points YoY to 11.0%, with the retail segment's gross margin dropping by 2.1 percentage points to 22.7% [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits of 1.78 billion yuan, 2.01 billion yuan, and 2.28 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 11%, 13.1%, and 13.8% [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 8X, 7X, and 6X for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4] - The company's ROE is expected to improve slightly, from 9.2% in 2023 to 9.7% in 2026 [5] Market Performance - The company's stock price closed at 24.79 yuan on September 3, 2024, with a year-to-date high of 40.79 yuan and a low of 24.69 yuan [5] - The company's total market capitalization stands at 13 billion yuan [5]