酒鬼酒：保持聚焦战略，逐季持续改善

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Hold" rating to the company, indicating a cautious approach due to expected performance adjustments in the near term [5]. Core Views - The report highlights that the recovery in liquor consumption has not met expectations, leading to slower payment collection from distributors [1]. - The company is focusing on strategic improvements and has initiated sample markets to enhance sales performance [4]. - Financial forecasts indicate a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with expectations of gradual recovery in subsequent years [5][7]. Financial Data and Valuation - For 2022A, the company reported revenue of 4,050 million yuan, which is expected to decline to 2,830 million yuan in 2023A, and further to 2,341 million yuan in 2024E, reflecting a growth rate of -30% and -17% respectively [1]. - Net profit is projected to decrease from 1,049 million yuan in 2022A to 548 million yuan in 2023A, and further to 339 million yuan in 2024E, with a growth rate of -48% [1]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to drop from 3.23 yuan in 2022A to 1.69 yuan in 2023A, and further to 1.04 yuan in 2024E [1]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to rise significantly from 11.0 in 2022A to 34.1 in 2024E, indicating a potential overvaluation in the near term [1]. Product Performance - The report notes that the company's flagship product series, "Jiugui," experienced a revenue decline of 30.11% in the first half of 2024, with both sales volume and price per ton decreasing [3]. - The "Neican" series saw a more substantial decline of 60.85% in revenue, with significant drops in both sales volume and price [3]. - Conversely, the "Xiangquan" series achieved a revenue increase of 36.33% in the same period, driven by improved sales volume [3]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing a focused strategy to enhance consumer engagement and has launched 11 sample markets to strengthen its market presence [4]. - Ongoing reforms in cost management are aimed at alleviating short-term profit pressures while maintaining flexibility in sales expenses [4].