泸州老窖:毛利率保持稳健,控量稳价效果显现

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 16.905 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.84%, and a net profit of 8.028 billion yuan, up 13.22% year-on-year [5]. - The gross profit margin remains stable at 88.57%, with a slight increase of 0.22 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin decreased by 1.10 percentage points to 47.49% [5]. - The company is undergoing digital transformation to enhance control over sales channels and maintain price stability, which has shown positive results in price management [5]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are set at 34.9 billion, 38.5 billion, and 41.5 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 15%, 10%, and 8% respectively [6]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 15 billion, 16.9 billion, and 18.4 billion yuan, with growth rates of 13%, 12%, and 9% [6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 10.19, 11.46, and 12.52 yuan for 2024-2026 [6]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has a total share capital of 1,472 million shares, with a market capitalization of 165.596 billion yuan [4]. - The company is focusing on high-end liquor sales, which saw a revenue increase of 17.12% year-on-year, despite a decrease in price per ton by 6.84% [5]. - The company is actively managing its sales expenses, which increased due to higher advertising costs, and is also facing increased tax burdens due to higher consumption taxes [5].