Cofco Sugar(SH:600737) ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2024-09-05 03:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for COFCO Sugar Industry, expecting a relative increase of over 15% in stock price compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [5]. Core Views - COFCO Sugar Industry's revenue for the first half of 2024 reached 14.956 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.52%. The net profit was 863 million yuan, up 12.22% year-on-year [2]. - The company has proposed a cash dividend of 2 yuan per 10 shares, marking the second consecutive year of semi-annual dividends [2]. - The report highlights that despite a decline in sugar and tomato prices, COFCO Sugar Industry has maintained operational resilience and profitability through effective risk management and market analysis [2][3]. - The company is seen as significantly undervalued, with expectations for new breakthroughs despite current industry challenges [2][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2022A: 26,439 million yuan - 2023A: 33,114 million yuan - 2024E: 33,419 million yuan - 2025E: 36,032 million yuan - 2026E: 39,914 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates: 2023A: 25%, 2024E: 0.9%, 2025E: 7.8%, 2026E: 10.8% [2][3]. - Net Profit Forecast: - 2022A: 744 million yuan - 2023A: 2,073 million yuan - 2024E: 1,709 million yuan - 2025E: 2,336 million yuan - 2026E: 3,476 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates: 2023A: 179%, 2024E: -18%, 2025E: 37%, 2026E: 49% [2][3]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2023A: 0.35 yuan - 2024E: 0.80 yuan - 2025E: 1.09 yuan - 2026E: 1.63 yuan [2][3]. - Return on Equity (ROE): - 2023A: 18% - 2024E: 13% - 2025E: 15% - 2026E: 19% [2][3].