Baolong Automotive(SH:603197) ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2024-09-05 03:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative price increase of over 15% in the next 6 to 12 months compared to the benchmark index [10]. Core Views - The company is experiencing steady revenue growth, with a projected revenue increase from 71.50 billion in 2024 to 104.00 billion in 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 21.24%, 24.18%, and 17.13% respectively [2]. - The net profit forecast for 2024 is adjusted to 4.20 billion, with expected growth rates of 10.99%, 32.84%, and 36.76% for the following years [2]. - The company's air suspension and sensor businesses are showing significant growth, with air suspension revenue increasing by 44.48% and sensor revenue by 51.71% in the first half of 2024 [6][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 31.84 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.68%, while the net profit was 1.48 billion, down 19.40% [3][5]. - The second quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 17.01 billion, up 18.97% year-on-year and 14.69% quarter-on-quarter [5][3]. Revenue Breakdown - The domestic business revenue in the first half of 2024 was 15.82 billion, a 42.75% increase year-on-year, driven by rapid growth in air suspension and sensor businesses [5]. - Traditional business segments such as metal pipe fittings and valve stems also showed positive growth, with revenues of 7.50 billion and 3.78 billion respectively [2]. Profitability Metrics - The company's gross margin for the first half of 2024 was 27.12%, slightly down by 0.66% year-on-year, primarily due to increased stock incentive costs [5]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is 1.79, increasing to 3.60 by 2026, indicating a strong growth trajectory [2][9]. Valuation Ratios - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 15.0 in 2024 to 8.3 in 2026, suggesting the stock may become increasingly attractive [2]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 1.9 in 2024 to 1.4 in 2026, further indicating potential value [2].