华新水泥：国内水泥经营承压，海外水泥量价齐升，骨料业务表现亮眼

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Huaxin Cement is maintained as "Buy - A" with a target price of 12.74 CNY [4]. Core Views - The report highlights that domestic cement operations are under pressure, while overseas cement sales and prices are rising. The aggregate business is performing well [2][3]. - In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 16.237 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 2.56%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 38.74% to 731 million CNY [2][3]. - The report anticipates marginal improvement in domestic cement demand as the real estate sector stabilizes, alongside supply-side measures that may lead to price and profit recovery [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, Huaxin Cement's revenue was 16.237 billion CNY, with Q1 and Q2 growth rates of 6.87% and -0.54% respectively. Domestic revenue fell by 4.2%, while overseas revenue surged by 55.46% [2]. - The cement business generated 8.666 billion CNY in revenue, down 11.25% year-on-year, with sales volume at approximately 28.484 million tons, a decrease of 4.90% [2][3]. - The gross profit margin for the cement segment was 20.71%, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the overall gross margin was 23.65% [3]. Overseas Operations - The overseas cement business generated 3.578 billion CNY in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 55.41%, accounting for about 22.04% of total revenue [3][6]. - New production lines in Mozambique and Malawi are expected to contribute significantly to future revenue growth, with an anticipated increase in clinker production capacity of approximately 3 million tons per year [3][6]. Non-Cement Business - The aggregate business showed strong growth, with revenue reaching 2.962 billion CNY, up 36.96% year-on-year, and a gross margin of 47.41% [6]. - The concrete business also performed well, with revenue of 3.943 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 24.21% [6]. Future Outlook - The report projects overall revenue for 2024-2026 to be 34.981 billion CNY, 36.825 billion CNY, and 38.298 billion CNY, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 3.62%, 5.27%, and 4.00% [6]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 2.039 billion CNY, 2.322 billion CNY, and 2.572 billion CNY, with growth rates of 26.18%, 13.90%, and 10.76% respectively [6].