JA SOLAR(002459) 海通证券·2024-09-05 06:41Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2024 due to industry-wide price drops, with a revenue of 37.357 billion yuan, down 8.54% year-on-year, and a net profit of -0.874 billion yuan [3] - In Q2 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 21.385 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.02%, but still reported a net profit of -0.391 billion yuan [3] - The company maintained high shipment volumes, with over 38 GW of battery modules shipped in the first half of 2024, of which approximately 54% were exported [3] - The company has improved its battery production efficiency and reduced costs, with the N-type battery's conversion efficiency reaching 26.5% [3] - The company has a strong cash reserve, having secured 25 billion yuan in new loans, with over 720 billion yuan in available bank credit [4] - Profit forecasts for 2024-2026 estimate net profits of -1.34 billion yuan, 2.645 billion yuan, and 3.641 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of -0.40, 0.80, and 1.10 yuan [4] Financial Summary - The company reported a total revenue of 81.556 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected revenue of 86.213 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.7% [5] - The net profit for 2023 was 7.039 billion yuan, with a forecasted net profit of -1.34 billion yuan for 2024, indicating a significant decline [5] - The gross margin is expected to drop to 5.6% in 2024, recovering to 10.5% and 11.0% in 2025 and 2026 respectively [5] Market Position - The company has a significant presence in overseas markets, with 60% of its orders in the first half of 2024 being for N-type modules, indicating a growing demand [3] - The company's stock price as of September 4, 2024, was 10.33 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 34.189 billion yuan [1]