伊利股份：2023年中报点评：主动调整，期待改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yili Co., Ltd. (600887.SH) [2][4] Core Views - Yili Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 59.915 billion yuan for H1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 9.49%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 19.44% to 7.531 billion yuan [2] - The company adjusted its sales rhythm for long-life liquid milk, while low-temperature products achieved growth against the trend [2] - The decline in raw milk prices improved gross margins, although promotional investments led to an increase in sales expense ratios [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - H1 2024 revenue was 599.15 billion yuan, down 9.49% year-on-year; net profit was 75.31 billion yuan, up 19.44% year-on-year; and non-recurring net profit was 53.24 billion yuan, down 12.81% year-on-year [2] - Q2 2024 revenue was 273.38 billion yuan, down 16.54% year-on-year; net profit was 16.08 billion yuan, down 40.21% year-on-year; and non-recurring net profit was 15.97 billion yuan, down 35.61% year-on-year [2] Product Segments - Liquid milk revenue for H1 2024 was 368.87 billion yuan, down 13.05% year-on-year; Q2 revenue was 166.26 billion yuan, down 19.61% year-on-year [2] - Milk powder and dairy products revenue for H1 2024 was 145.09 billion yuan, up 7.31% year-on-year; Q2 revenue was 70.81 billion yuan, up 16.49% year-on-year [2] - Ice cream products revenue for H1 2024 was 73.22 billion yuan, down 20.04% year-on-year; Q2 revenue was 29.89 billion yuan, down 44.27% year-on-year [2] Profitability and Expenses - Gross margins for H1 2024 and Q2 2024 were 35.02% and 33.84%, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 1.11 percentage points for H1 [2] - Sales expense ratios for H1 2024 and Q2 2024 were 19.41% and 20.56%, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 2.51 and 2.11 percentage points [2] - Net profit margins for H1 2024 and Q2 2024 were 12.57% and 5.88%, respectively, with year-on-year decreases of 2.33 and 12.30 percentage points [2] Future Outlook - The company expects to stabilize operations and improve profitability in H2 2024 after channel adjustments are completed [2] - The net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised down to 11.597 billion yuan, 11.506 billion yuan, and 12.313 billion yuan, respectively [2]