CYTS(600138) 国泰君安·2024-09-05 08:13Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company, with a target price of 10.88 yuan, down 16% from the previous target of 12.90 yuan [3] Core Views - The company's performance is in line with expectations, with recovery in Wuzhen and Gubei, but pressure remains on surrounding tourist flows, and the hotel business continues to reduce losses [2] - The report downgrades the EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 to 0.38 yuan (-16%), 0.44 yuan (-21%), and 0.47 yuan (-24%) respectively, citing pressure from surrounding tourism and the impact of new projects ramping up [2] - Wuzhen and Gubei are still in the recovery phase, with Wuzhen's revenue increasing by 2.2% YoY to 859 million yuan in H1 2024, while Gubei's revenue decreased by 21.72% YoY to 275 million yuan [2] - The hotel business continues to reduce losses, with Shanshui Hotel narrowing its losses to 17 million yuan, mainly due to the closure of some loss-making stores and scale reduction [2] Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4.35 billion yuan, up 4.12% YoY, with net profit attributable to the parent company of 73 million yuan, down 31.84% YoY [2] - In Q2 2024, revenue was 2.428 billion yuan, down 3.66% YoY, with gross profit of 652 million yuan, down 1.9% YoY, and a gross margin of 26.85%, up 0.48 percentage points YoY [2] - The company's net profit margin in Q2 2024 was 4.18%, down 0.23 percentage points YoY [2] Business Segments - Wuzhen's revenue in H1 2024 was 859 million yuan, up 2.2% YoY, with 3.83 million visitors, up 7.9% YoY, and an average ticket price of 224.43 yuan, down 5.26% YoY [2] - Gubei Water Town's revenue in H1 2024 was 275 million yuan, down 21.72% YoY, with 600,000 visitors, down 11.5% YoY, and an average ticket price of 458 yuan, down 11.55% YoY [2] - CYTS Tours' revenue in H1 2024 was 781 million yuan, down 12.71% YoY, with a slight profit [2] - Shanshui Hotel's revenue in H1 2024 was 150 million yuan, down 24.41% YoY, with a net loss of 17 million yuan, continuing to narrow losses YoY [2] - Chuangge Technology's revenue in H1 2024 was 1.647 billion yuan, down 6% YoY, with a net profit of 24 million yuan, up 3% YoY [2] Market and Valuation - The company's current market price is 9.26 yuan, with a 52-week price range of 9.12-12.85 yuan [4] - The company's total market capitalization is 6.703 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 724 million shares, all of which are tradable A-shares [4] - The company's PE ratio for 2024E is 24.62x, and for 2025E is 21.28x [3] Industry Comparison - The average PE ratio for comparable companies in the tourism industry is 30.62x for 2024E, 26.22x for 2025E, and 22.29x for 2026E [9]