Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 7.048 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.65%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 153 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.77% [3] - The company's scenic spot business is under pressure, with Wuzhen receiving 5.9934 million visitors, a year-on-year decrease of 2.68%, and Gubei Water Town receiving 1.0025 million visitors, a year-on-year decrease of 10.55% [4] - The exhibition business saw significant profit growth, and the travel agency business benefited from the recovery of outbound tourism [5] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 10.375 billion yuan, 11.908 billion yuan, and 12.877 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profit attributable to the parent company of 191 million yuan, 228 million yuan, and 263 million yuan [6] - The PE ratios for 2024-2026 are projected to be 39.4x, 32.9x, and 28.5x, respectively [6] - Revenue growth rates for 2024-2026 are forecasted at 7.68%, 14.77%, and 8.14%, respectively [7] - Net profit growth rates for 2024-2026 are expected to be -1.79%, 19.51%, and 15.52%, respectively [7] Business Segment Analysis - Wuzhen Scenic Area generated revenue of 1.325 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 4.36%, with a net profit of 265 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.32% [4] - Gubei Water Town generated revenue of 429 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 21.38% [4] - CYTS Boliand achieved revenue of 1.323 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 5.46%, but net profit increased significantly to 24.2938 million yuan due to improved management efficiency [5] - Strategic investment business remained stable, with Chuangge Technology achieving revenue of 2.574 billion yuan and net profit of 38.8879 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2024 [5] Financial Ratios and Metrics - The company's ROE is expected to be 3.02%, 3.56%, and 4.06% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [7] - The PB ratios for 2024-2026 are projected to be 1.19x, 1.17x, and 1.16x, respectively [7] - The dividend payout ratio is expected to increase from 31% in 2023 to 52%, 61%, and 68% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's overall performance declined in the first three quarters of 2024, with revenue increasing by 4.65% YoY to 7.048 billion yuan, but net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 25.77% YoY to 153 million yuan [1] - In Q3 2024, revenue increased by 5.51% YoY to 2.697 billion yuan, while net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 19.29% YoY to 80 million yuan [1] - The company's travel agency business saw significant revenue growth, driven by exclusive resources and strong competitiveness in visa services [2] - The company is actively innovating and expanding its product offerings in various segments, including scenic areas, tourism services, integrated marketing, and hotels [4] Business Performance Travel Agency Business - Revenue increased significantly due to the company's focus on exclusive resources and strong market competitiveness in visa services [2] Scenic Area Business - Wuzhen Scenic Area received 5.9934 million visitors, a decrease of 2.68% YoY, with revenue declining by 4.36% YoY to 1.325 billion yuan and net profit decreasing by 20.32% YoY to 265 million yuan [2] - Gubei Water Town received 1.0025 million visitors, a decrease of 10.55% YoY, with revenue declining by 21.38% YoY to 429 million yuan [2] Integrated Marketing Business - Revenue decreased by 5.46% YoY to 1.323 billion yuan, but net profit increased significantly due to improved management and higher gross margins [2] Hotel Business - Revenue decreased by 26.61% YoY to 234 million yuan, mainly due to the closure of some loss-making stores [2] Strategic Business - Chuangge Technology achieved revenue of 2.574 billion yuan and net profit of 39 million yuan, both remaining stable YoY [2] Financial Metrics Q3 2024 - Gross margin decreased by 3.8 percentage points YoY to 23.5% [3] - Sales/management/financial expense ratios changed by +0.0/-0.9/-0.7 percentage points to 8.5%/5.8%/2.0% respectively [3] - Investment income as a percentage of revenue decreased by 1.0 percentage point YoY to 0.1% [3] - Credit impairment losses decreased by 111.5% YoY, likely due to the reversal of previously accrued impairments [3] - Net profit margin attributable to the parent company decreased by 0.9 percentage points YoY to 3.0% [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 10.1/10.8/11.5 billion yuan and net profit attributable to the parent company of 140/200/290 million yuan in 2024-2026, with current stock price corresponding to PE ratios of 52x/38x/26x [8] Innovation and Development - The company is continuously innovating in its scenic area business, with Wuzhen launching various cultural activities and Gubei Water Town enriching its "City of Light" cultural IP through concerts, light shows, and food festivals [4] - Non-scenic area businesses are also being developed, with integrated marketing focusing on high-level government meetings, travel agencies enhancing product quality, and hotel businesses upgrading cultural tourism products and services [4]

社会服务 证 券 研 究 报 告 上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究/ 公 司 点 评 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 11 月 01 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 10.07 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 12.30/8.76 | | 市净率 | 1.2 | | 息率（分红/股价） | 0.84 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 7,289 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,272.01/10,455.50 | | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|-------------------------------| | | | | | | | 基础数据 : | 2024 年 09 月 30 日 | | 每股净资产（元） | 8.71 | | 资产负债率 % | 50.44 | | 总股本 /流通 A 股（百万） | 724/724 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年 ...

股 票 研 究 公 司 更 新 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.11.01 ——中青旅 2024Q3 年业绩点评 [table_Authors]刘越男(分析师) 021-38677706 liuyuenan@gtjas.com 登记编号S0880516030003 | --- | --- | |------------------------------|-------| | | | | 庄子童 ( 分析师 ) | | | 021-38032683 | | | zhuangzitong026312@gtjas.com | | | S0880524070002 | | 本报告导读： 业绩略低预期，平价出行趋势下休闲景区客流承压，两镇经营仍待修复。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 投资建议：考虑到周边游承压及新增项目爬坡影响，下调 2024-2026 年预测 EPS 分别为 0.27（-29%）/0.33（-25%）/0.39（ ...

中青旅控股股份有限公司 2024 年第三季度报告 单位：元 币种：人民币 证券代码：600138 证券简称：中青旅 中青旅控股股份有限公司 2024 年第三季度报告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者 重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 公司董事会、监事会及董事、监事、高级管理人员保证季度报告内容的真实、准确、完整，不存 在虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏，并承担个别和连带的法律责任。 公司负责人、主管会计工作负责人及会计机构负责人（会计主管人员）保证季度报告中财务信息 的真实、准确、完整。 第三季度财务报表是否经审计 □是 √否 一、 主要财务数据 （一） 主要会计数据和财务指标 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------|-----------------------|--------------------------------------|-----------------------|----------- ...

社会服务 证 券 研 究 报 告 2024 年 09 月 05 日 中青旅 (600138) ——乌镇客流提升，关注中期利润释放弹性 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 09 月 05 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 9.37 | | 一年内最高 / 最低（元） | 12.83/8.88 | | 市净率 | 1.1 | | 息率（分红/股价） | 0.91 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 6,782 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 2,788.31/8,249.66 | | 注："息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | --- | --- | |------------------------------|------------------------| | | | | 基础数据 : 2024 | 年 06 月 30 日 | | | 8.60 | | 每股净资产（元） | | | 资产负债率 % | 50.53 | | 总股本/流通 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company, with a target price of 10.88 yuan, down 16% from the previous target of 12.90 yuan [3] Core Views - The company's performance is in line with expectations, with recovery in Wuzhen and Gubei, but pressure remains on surrounding tourist flows, and the hotel business continues to reduce losses [2] - The report downgrades the EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 to 0.38 yuan (-16%), 0.44 yuan (-21%), and 0.47 yuan (-24%) respectively, citing pressure from surrounding tourism and the impact of new projects ramping up [2] - Wuzhen and Gubei are still in the recovery phase, with Wuzhen's revenue increasing by 2.2% YoY to 859 million yuan in H1 2024, while Gubei's revenue decreased by 21.72% YoY to 275 million yuan [2] - The hotel business continues to reduce losses, with Shanshui Hotel narrowing its losses to 17 million yuan, mainly due to the closure of some loss-making stores and scale reduction [2] Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4.35 billion yuan, up 4.12% YoY, with net profit attributable to the parent company of 73 million yuan, down 31.84% YoY [2] - In Q2 2024, revenue was 2.428 billion yuan, down 3.66% YoY, with gross profit of 652 million yuan, down 1.9% YoY, and a gross margin of 26.85%, up 0.48 percentage points YoY [2] - The company's net profit margin in Q2 2024 was 4.18%, down 0.23 percentage points YoY [2] Business Segments - Wuzhen's revenue in H1 2024 was 859 million yuan, up 2.2% YoY, with 3.83 million visitors, up 7.9% YoY, and an average ticket price of 224.43 yuan, down 5.26% YoY [2] - Gubei Water Town's revenue in H1 2024 was 275 million yuan, down 21.72% YoY, with 600,000 visitors, down 11.5% YoY, and an average ticket price of 458 yuan, down 11.55% YoY [2] - CYTS Tours' revenue in H1 2024 was 781 million yuan, down 12.71% YoY, with a slight profit [2] - Shanshui Hotel's revenue in H1 2024 was 150 million yuan, down 24.41% YoY, with a net loss of 17 million yuan, continuing to narrow losses YoY [2] - Chuangge Technology's revenue in H1 2024 was 1.647 billion yuan, down 6% YoY, with a net profit of 24 million yuan, up 3% YoY [2] Market and Valuation - The company's current market price is 9.26 yuan, with a 52-week price range of 9.12-12.85 yuan [4] - The company's total market capitalization is 6.703 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 724 million shares, all of which are tradable A-shares [4] - The company's PE ratio for 2024E is 24.62x, and for 2025E is 21.28x [3] Industry Comparison - The average PE ratio for comparable companies in the tourism industry is 30.62x for 2024E, 26.22x for 2025E, and 22.29x for 2026E [9]

证券研究报告 资料来源：Wind 中青旅 (600138 CH) 两镇仍待修复，跨境业务复苏向上 2024年9月01日│中国内地 华泰研究 中报点评 景点 1H24 收入平稳增长，2Q 利润环比扭亏 中青旅 1H24 实现营收 43.51 亿/yoy+4.1%，归母净利 0.73 亿/yoy-31.8%， 扣非净利 0.74 亿/yoy-26.3%，扣非净利率 1.70%/yoy-0.7pct，主要系折摊 等固定成本增加。2Q24 收入 24.28 亿元/yoy-3.7%，扣非净利 1.02 亿 /yoy-5.2%，扣非净利率 4.20%/yoy-0.1pct/qoq+5.7pct，环比扭亏。展望 2H24，跨境游市场景气度回升，旅行社复苏弹性可期，但两镇客流和客单 价增长仍存在一定压力。考虑主业景区经营承压，近郊周边游复苏缓慢，预 计 24-26 年 EPS0.36/0.43/0.50 元（前值：0.54/0.68/0.82 元），可比 24 年 Wind 一致预测均值 PE 18X，考虑出境游需求恢复撬动估值弹性，综合文 旅平台稀缺性，给予 24 年 28X PE，目标价 10.08 元，维持"增持"。 ...

公司代码：600138 公司简称：中青旅 2024 年半年度报告 中青旅控股股份有限公司 2024 年半年度报告 1 / 141 2024 年半年度报告 重要提示 一、 本公司董事会、监事会及董事、监事、高级管理人员保证半年度报告内容的真实性、准确性、 完整性，不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏，并承担个别和连带的法律责任。 二、 公司全体董事出席董事会会议。 三、 本半年度报告未经审计。 四、 公司负责人倪阳平、主管会计工作负责人范思远及会计机构负责人（会计主管人员）谭宁声 明：保证半年度报告中财务报告的真实、准确、完整。 五、 董事会决议通过的本报告期利润分配预案或公积金转增股本预案 不进行现金分红，也不进行资本公积金转增股本和其他形式的利润分配。 六、 前瞻性陈述的风险声明 √适用 □不适用 本报告中所涉及的未来计划、发展战略等前瞻性描述不构成对投资者的实质承诺，敬请投资 者注意投资风险。 七、 是否存在被控股股东及其他关联方非经营性占用资金情况 否 八、 是否存在违反规定决策程序对外提供担保的情况 否 九、 是否存在半数以上董事无法保证公司所披露半年度报告的真实性、准确性和完整性 否 十、 重大风险 ...

图表目录 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 内容目录 7. 风险提示 图表 1: 公司发展历程 | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------| | | | | | 图表 2: 公司主要业务 | | 图表 3: 2003-2023 年营业收入及 yoy . | | 图表 4： 2013-2023 年各业务营收占比 . | | 图表 5: 2013-2023 年签体及各业务毛利率 | | 图表 6: 2013-2023 年各业务毛利贡献（亿元）… | | 图表 7: 2013-2023 年公司主要费用率变化 | | 图表 8: 2013-2023 年公司利润水平… | | 图表 9: 公司股权架构（成至 2024年６月 27日） | | 图表 10: 2012-2022 年Ａ 级景区个数 | | 图表 11: 2012-2022 年Ａ线景区收入占国内求游收入比例 | | 图表 12: 2013-2023 年居民人均可支配收入及增速 | | 图表 13: 2015Q1—2023Q2 旅游经济景气指数 | | 图表 14: 2012-2024E ...