新乳业：低温品类稳健增长，盈利提升持续兑现

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [11]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 5.36 billion yuan in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.3%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 300 million yuan, up 25.3% year-on-year [1]. - The company continues to focus on its "Fresh Cube" strategy, with steady growth in low-temperature products. Liquid milk, milk powder, and other products generated revenues of 4.84 billion yuan, 35 million yuan, and 490 million yuan respectively in H1 2024, with liquid milk showing a growth of 0.5% year-on-year [2]. - The gross margin improved to 29.1% in Q2 2024, with a net profit margin of 7.7%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.1 percentage points [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 10,987 million yuan in 2023 to 14,201 million yuan by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.5% [1][6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 431 million yuan in 2023 to 815 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of around 20.1% [1][6]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to be 18.8% in 2024, peaking at 19.3% in 2025 [1][7]. Product and Channel Performance - In H1 2024, the company reported revenue from liquid milk, milk powder, and other products, with liquid milk maintaining growth in the low-temperature segment [2]. - Revenue by region showed varied performance, with the East China and South China regions experiencing faster growth compared to the Northwest and Southwest regions, which faced declines due to higher reliance on ambient milk products [2]. Profitability and Efficiency - The company has improved its cost efficiency, with reductions in sales, management, and financial expense ratios, contributing to enhanced profitability [2]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from 0.50 yuan in 2023 to 0.95 yuan in 2026, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [1][7].