YTCO(SH:600066) Soochow Securities·2024-09-05 23:07Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yutong Bus is maintained as "Buy" [3] Core Views - August sales showed a significant recovery with a month-on-month increase, indicating a potential turning point in market conditions expected in 2024 [2] - The company is benefiting from a new policy promoting the replacement of old buses, which is anticipated to boost demand in the second half of 2024 [2] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The projected total revenue for Yutong Bus is 34.73 billion, 41.45 billion, and 49.94 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 28%, 19%, and 20% [3] - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders is 3.31 billion, 4.11 billion, and 4.96 billion yuan for the same years, with year-on-year growth rates of 82%, 24%, and 21% [3] - The expected EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 1.50, 1.86, and 2.24 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14, 11, and 9 times [3] Sales and Production Insights - In August 2024, Yutong Bus sold 3,648 units, with a month-on-month increase of 9% and a year-on-year decrease of 6% [2] - The production in August was 4,189 units, reflecting a significant month-on-month increase of 61% due to inventory replenishment [2] - The sales of large and medium buses accounted for 86% of total sales, maintaining a high proportion [2] Policy Impact - The new subsidy policy for replacing old buses includes an average subsidy of 60,000 yuan per vehicle, with higher amounts for new energy buses and battery replacements [2] - The policy is expected to accelerate the replacement of buses older than eight years, with an estimated 30,000 new replacements anticipated in 2024 [2]