YTCO(SH:600066) GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2024-09-06 00:10Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yutong Bus (600066.SH) [4] Core Views - August sales met expectations with a total of 3,648 buses sold, representing a year-on-year decrease of 6% but a month-on-month increase of 9%. The sales breakdown includes 1,928 large buses, 1,201 medium buses, and 519 light buses [1] - The company is experiencing a robust upward trend in exports for the year, supported by a full order book for overseas deliveries and the gradual fulfillment of high-margin orders, which is expected to enhance profitability [1] - The recent "trade-in" subsidy policy from the Ministry of Transport and the Ministry of Finance is anticipated to significantly boost domestic demand for buses, with an estimated elasticity of over 60% for bus replacement demand in the second half of 2024 [2] - Yutong Bus is projected to benefit directly from the recovery in domestic bus demand, with an expected net profit of 3.317 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 82.6% [2] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 21,799 million yuan, with a projected increase to 33,257 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth rate of 23% [3] - The net profit for 2022 was 759 million yuan, expected to rise to 3,317 million yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 82.6% [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.34 yuan in 2022 to 1.50 yuan in 2024 [3] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 62.6 in 2022 to 14.3 in 2024, indicating improved valuation [3] Market Position - Yutong Bus holds approximately 15% of the domestic bus market share in 2023, positioning it favorably to capitalize on the expected increase in domestic bus demand [2]