Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Simcere Pharmaceutical Group (02096) [4] Core Views - Simcere Pharmaceutical's adjusted net profit grew rapidly in H1 2024, driven by the commercialization of innovative drugs [1] - The company's innovative drug revenue accounted for over 70% of total revenue, with a strong trend of increasing proportion [1] - Multiple blockbuster innovative drugs have made progress, with one new drug approved and two new drug NDAs accepted [1] - The report is optimistic about the company's performance growth from 2024 to 2026, driven by both existing and new innovative drug products [1][2] Financial Performance - H1 2024 revenue was approximately RMB 3.114 billion (YoY -7.9%), mainly due to declines in promotion service revenue and Simceres sales [1] - Innovative drug revenue was approximately RMB 2.203 billion (YoY -8.7%), accounting for 70.7% of total revenue [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 457 million (YoY -79.9%), while adjusted net profit was RMB 538 million (YoY +36.5%) [1] Innovation Progress - One new innovative drug, Enlituo, was approved for marketing [1] - Two new innovative drugs, Enzeshu and Keweike, had their NDAs accepted [1] - Leduquimab (IL-4Rα) completed FPI for two indications: atopic dermatitis and asthma [1] Financial Forecasts - 2024-2026 EPS is projected to be RMB 0.38, 0.48, and 0.59 per share respectively [2] - 2024E revenue is forecasted at RMB 7.459 billion (+13% YoY), with net profit of RMB 960 million (+34% YoY) [3][7] - 2025E revenue is projected at RMB 8.666 billion (+16% YoY), with net profit of RMB 1.225 billion (+28% YoY) [3][7] - 2026E revenue is expected to reach RMB 9.802 billion (+13% YoY), with net profit of RMB 1.489 billion (+22% YoY) [3][7] Valuation - As of September 4, 2024, the stock's closing price corresponds to a 2024 PE of 15x [2] - The report maintains a positive outlook on the company's growth potential driven by its innovative drug portfolio [2] Key Financial Ratios - Gross margin is expected to increase from 75.43% in 2023 to 81.25% in 2026 [9] - Net profit margin is projected to grow from 10.82% in 2023 to 15.19% in 2026 [9] - ROE is forecasted to improve from 9.90% in 2023 to 15.84% in 2026 [9] - Debt-to-asset ratio is expected to decrease from 33.45% in 2023 to 29.69% in 2026 [9]
先声药业：2024H1业绩点评：主业利润高增，看好创新向上