SF Holding(002352) 华福证券·2024-09-06 01:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for SF Holding (002352 SZ) [3][5] Core Views - SF Holding achieved revenue of 134 41 billion yuan in 2024H1, up 8 1% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 4 81 billion yuan, up 15 1% YoY [2] - The company's express delivery volume grew 6 3% YoY to 6 24 billion pieces in 2024H1, with adjusted growth of 14 3% after excluding Fengwang [2] - SF Holding's profitability improved significantly, with gross profit up 10 8% YoY to 18 63 billion yuan and gross margin increasing by 0 4 percentage points to 13 9% [2] - The company's capital expenditure decreased by 26 0% YoY to 6 17 billion yuan in 2024H1, indicating a peak has passed [2] Business Segment Performance - Time-sensitive express business revenue grew 5 6% YoY to 59 19 billion yuan in 2024H1 [2] - Economy express business revenue increased 9 3% YoY to 13 25 billion yuan [2] - Freight business revenue rose 16 1% YoY to 17 55 billion yuan [2] - Cold chain and pharmaceutical business revenue declined 5 2% YoY to 5 06 billion yuan [2] - Intra-city delivery business revenue surged 18 5% YoY to 3 96 billion yuan [2] - International and supply chain business revenue grew 8 1% YoY to 31 20 billion yuan [2] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from 291 46 billion yuan in 2024E to 368 52 billion yuan in 2026E [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from 9 45 billion yuan in 2024E to 12 92 billion yuan in 2026E [4] - EPS is forecasted to grow from 1 96 yuan in 2024E to 2 68 yuan in 2026E [4] - ROE is expected to improve from 9 1% in 2024E to 10 5% in 2026E [8] Valuation Metrics - Current P/E ratio stands at 21 2x for 2023A, expected to decrease to 13 5x by 2026E [8] - P/B ratio is 1 9x for 2023A, projected to decline to 1 5x by 2026E [8] - The stock's current price is 36 68 yuan with a market capitalization of 176 65 billion yuan [5]