CFMOTO(603129) 中泰证券·2024-09-06 06:34Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][3] Core Views - The company's Q2 2024 performance showed steady improvement with revenue reaching 4,468 million yuan, up 23.2% YoY and 45.96% QoQ, driven by strong demand for two-wheel motorcycles both domestically and internationally [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders in Q2 2024 was 431 million yuan, up 26.35% YoY and 55.40% QoQ, with a gross margin of 30.82% [2] - The company's all-terrain vehicle (ATV) business remains stable, maintaining a leading position in exports with a 71.75% market share in the industry [3] - The two-wheel motorcycle business saw significant growth, with revenue reaching 3,248 million yuan in H1 2024, up 41.95% YoY, driven by the company's focus on user-centric product development and strong performance in the domestic large-displacement motorcycle market [3] - The company's electric two-wheelers entered the high-end market with a 300% YoY revenue increase [3] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 14,500 million yuan in 2024E to 20,322 million yuan in 2026E, with a CAGR of 19.7% from 2024E to 2026E [1][3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 1,270 million yuan in 2024E to 1,942 million yuan in 2026E, with a CAGR of 23.4% [1][3] - EPS is forecasted to grow from 8.39 yuan in 2024E to 12.82 yuan in 2026E [1][3] - ROE is expected to remain stable at around 19% from 2024E to 2026E [1] Business Segments - The ATV business generated 3,532 million yuan in revenue in H1 2024, down 1.55% YoY, but maintained a strong export market share, particularly in the US and Europe [3] - The two-wheel motorcycle business achieved 3,248 million yuan in revenue in H1 2024, up 41.95% YoY, with the company leading the domestic market for motorcycles over 250cc [3] Valuation Metrics - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decline from 16.2x in 2024E to 10.6x in 2026E, indicating potential undervaluation [1] - The P/B ratio is projected to decrease from 3.2x in 2024E to 2.1x in 2026E [1] Financial Ratios - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 33% from 2024E to 2026E [5] - Net margin is forecasted to improve from 9.1% in 2024E to 10.0% in 2026E [5] - ROIC is projected to increase from 12.4% in 2024E to 13.7% in 2026E [5] Cash Flow and Balance Sheet - Operating cash flow is expected to grow from 1,743 million yuan in 2024E to 2,491 million yuan in 2026E [6] - The company's total assets are projected to increase from 13,366 million yuan in 2024E to 18,448 million yuan in 2026E [5] - The debt-to-equity ratio is expected to decline from 61.9% in 2024E to 59.4% in 2026E [6]