华新水泥：骨料和海外水泥盈利水平稳定，对冲国内水泥压力

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A and H shares of the company, with a target price of 12.86 CNY per share for A shares and 7.83 HKD per share for H shares [5][14]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 16.237 billion CNY in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.56%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 731 million CNY, a decrease of 38.74% [2][9]. - The profitability from overseas cement operations offsets losses from domestic operations, with a slight increase in overseas average prices [2][9]. - Aggregate and concrete sales showed strong growth, with aggregates contributing significantly to profit margins [3][9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit: In H1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 16.237 billion CNY, with a net profit of 731 million CNY, reflecting a decline in profitability compared to the previous year [2][9]. - Sales Volume: Total cement and clinker sales volume was 28.48 million tons, down 4.9% year-on-year, with domestic sales down 15.7% and overseas sales up 47% [2][9]. - Pricing and Costs: The average selling price for cement was 304 CNY per ton, down 22 CNY year-on-year, while the cost per ton was 241 CNY, down 10 CNY [2][9]. Business Segment Performance - Cement and Clinker: This segment accounted for 53% of total revenue, with domestic operations underperforming due to market pressures [2][9]. - Aggregates: Aggregate sales volume increased by 42% year-on-year to 71.53 million tons, with stable profit margins [3][9]. - Concrete: Concrete sales volume rose by 34% year-on-year, although profit margins faced pressure due to market conditions [3][9]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2 billion CNY in 2024, 2.2 billion CNY in 2025, and 2.5 billion CNY in 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11.7, 10.6, and 9.1 [14][12]. - The report suggests a reasonable PB valuation of 0.9 times for A shares, indicating potential for price appreciation [14][12].