YTCO(SH:600066) Guohai Securities·2024-09-09 03:02Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yutong Bus (600066) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - August sales showed a month-on-month increase, indicating a recovery from seasonal fluctuations. In August 2024, the company produced 4,189 buses, a year-on-year increase of 3.28%, while sales reached 3,648 buses, a year-on-year decrease of 6.44%. However, sales improved by 8.7% month-on-month [3][4] - The cumulative sales from January to August 2024 reached 27,558 buses, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21.36%. The overall sales and export outlook for the year remains positive [4] - The company is expected to benefit from new public transport subsidy policies introduced across various provinces, which aim to accelerate the replacement of old buses with new ones. Notably, seven provinces are projected to replace over 10,000 buses in 2024 [4] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for Yutong Bus are as follows: 31.91 billion in 2024, 35.59 billion in 2025, and 38.99 billion in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 18%, 12%, and 10% respectively [4][7] - Net profit forecasts are 3.44 billion in 2024, 3.97 billion in 2025, and 4.57 billion in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 89%, 15%, and 15% respectively [4][7] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.55, 1.79, and 2.07 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 14, 12, and 10 times based on the current stock price [4][8]