NXBM(600449) 天风证券·2024-09-09 03:07Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company as of September 8, 2024 [5]. Core Insights - The company benefits from strong state-owned enterprise backing, with expectations for long-term integration remaining. The current valuation is at a historical relative low, with a PB (LF) percentile of approximately 0.08% as of September 6, 2024. The projected net profit for the parent company from 2024 to 2026 is estimated at 200 million, 300 million, and 380 million yuan, representing year-on-year changes of -31%, +49%, and +25% respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 22x, 15x, and 12x for the same period [1]. Company Overview - The company, Ningxia Building Materials, is a leading cement producer in the Ningxia region, controlled by China National Building Material Group, which provides a strong state-owned background. The main business includes cement and digital logistics, with a significant growth in digital logistics since 2020 [1][10]. Cement Business - The company has a clinker production capacity exceeding 12 million tons per year, with operations in both Inner Mongolia and Ningxia. The profitability of the cement business is expected to recover as the industry reaches a cyclical bottom. The average price of cement in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia as of late July was 420 yuan and 415 yuan per ton, respectively, reflecting a price increase from earlier in the year [2][19]. - The demand for cement in Ningxia is under pressure, while Inner Mongolia's demand remains stable. The company holds a strong bargaining power in Ningxia due to high industry concentration, where it accounts for 39% of the market [2][26]. Digital Logistics - The digital logistics segment, operated by the subsidiary Saima Wulian, has seen a compound annual growth rate of 233% over the past three years, with a significant revenue increase of 82.5% year-on-year in 2023, reaching 6.54 billion yuan. The transportation service revenue accounted for 63.4 billion yuan, with 69.5% coming from services provided to enterprises within the China National Building Material Group [3][14]. - The digital logistics business is expected to continue expanding, leveraging synergies with other members of the China National Building Material Group and external clients in the energy and building materials sectors [3]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at 10.41 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 20.24%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 297.4 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 43.78% year-on-year. The company’s P/E ratio is forecasted to be 15.10 for 2023, with a P/B ratio of 0.63 [4][5].