CFMOTO(603129) 民生证券·2024-09-09 03:16Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, with a target price of 132.89 yuan per share as of September 6, 2024 [1][3] Core Views - The company is positioned to become a global leader in the Powersport industry, driven by its dual focus on motorcycles and all-terrain vehicles (ATVs) [1] - The company's revenue and net profit have shown strong growth, with a CAGR of 27.4% and 37.1% respectively from 2013 to 2023 [1] - The domestic market for large-displacement motorcycles (>250cc) is expected to grow significantly, with penetration rates projected to increase from 8.6% in 2024H1 to 20% by 2030 [1] - The company's export strategy for large-displacement motorcycles is accelerating, with overseas sales expected to reach 60,000 units by 2030, representing a CAGR of 29.5% from 2023 [1] - The company is focusing on high-end ATV products in the North American market, with sales expected to grow from 190,000 units in 2025 to 273,000 units by 2030 [1] Motorcycle Market Analysis Domestic Market - The domestic market for large-displacement motorcycles (>250cc) is expected to grow, with penetration rates projected to increase from 8.6% in 2024H1 to 20% by 2030 [1] - The company's domestic market share for large-displacement motorcycles is expected to increase from 25% in 2025 to 30% by 2030, with sales reaching 300,000 units [1] - The company's electric motorcycle brand, ZEEHO, is expected to contribute significantly to growth, with sales increasing by 300.4% in 2024H1 [1] Export Market - The overseas market for large-displacement motorcycles (>250cc) is estimated to be 525,000 units in 2023, more than 10 times the domestic market [1] - The company's export sales of motorcycles reached 98,000 units in 2023 and 86,000 units in 2024H1, with a projected CAGR of 29.5% from 2023 to 2030 [1] - The company's competitive advantage in the export market lies in its product quality, cost-effectiveness, and extensive product lineup [1] All-Terrain Vehicle (ATV) Market Analysis - The global ATV market is estimated at 960,000 units in 2023, with high-end UTV products gaining market share [1] - The company is focusing on the North American market, with high-value products contributing to steady growth [1] - The company plans to launch high-performance ATV models in 2024H2, targeting the North American market [1] - ATV sales are expected to grow from 190,000 units in 2025 to 273,000 units by 2030, with a CAGR of 9.3% [1] Financial Projections - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 15.2 billion yuan in 2024 to 23.7 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 25.5% [1][2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 1.32 billion yuan in 2024 to 2.23 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 31.3% [1][2] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to grow from 8.74 yuan in 2024 to 14.75 yuan in 2026 [1][2] Industry Trends - The global motorcycle market is stable, with annual sales of around 50 million units, dominated by road motorcycles and scooters [54] - The Americas and Europe are key markets for motorcycles, with steady growth in demand [57] - Emerging markets like Turkey and Mexico are showing rapid growth in motorcycle sales, driven by economic factors and increased supply from Chinese manufacturers [58][60]