Huafa Properties(600325) 长江证券·2024-09-09 06:12Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huafa Properties (600325 SH) [10] Core Views - Short-term: Sales ranking steadily improves, prudent investment amid cyclical downturn is rational, ample land reserves ensure sales scale upon demand recovery [2][6] - Long-term: Industry supply structure optimization, solid financial resources, focus on core cities, pursuit of quality growth [2][6] - Financial health: Remains in the "green zone" for the three red lines, declining financing costs, room for further improvement in generalized expenses [2][6] - Shareholder support: Proposed transaction with major shareholder Huafa Group for up to RMB 12 billion in existing commercial properties to revitalize assets and stabilize cash flow [2][6] Financial Performance - 2024H revenue: RMB 24 84 billion (-21 1%), net profit attributable to shareholders: RMB 1 26 billion (-34 4%), gross margin: 16 8% (-2 1pct) [5][6] - Pre-sale funds: RMB 88 84 billion, pre-sale funds/annualized settlement revenue ratio: 1 44x [6] - 2024-2026 net profit forecast: RMB 1 57/1 62/1 66 billion, growth rates: -15%/3%/2%, PE ratios: 9 6/9 3/9 1x [6] Debt and Financing - Interest-bearing debt: RMB 150 4 billion (+4 4%), long-term debt accounts for over 80% of total debt [7] - Debt-to-asset ratio (excluding pre-sales): 61 3% (-109bps from 2023 year-end), financing cost: 5 13% (-35bps from 2023 year-end) [7] Sales and Land Acquisition - 2024H sales: RMB 45 2 billion (-41 2%), sales area: 1 67 million sqm (-32 7%), average selling price: RMB 27 000/sqm (-12 7%) [7] - Sales ranking: 11th in the industry, up 3 spots [7] - Land acquisition: RMB 5 74 billion (-62 6%), land area: 93 000 sqm (-88 5%), average land price: RMB 61 700/sqm [7] - Land acquisition intensity: 12 7% by value, 5 6% by area [7] Land Reserves and Development - Uncompleted land reserves: 13 72 million sqm [7] - New construction: 756 000 sqm (-11 4%), completed area: 3 039 million sqm (+10 8%) [7]