DHI(002487) 海通证券·2024-09-09 07:41Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The company's revenue and profit in Q2 2024 declined year-on-year but increased significantly quarter-on-quarter [5] - Q2 2024 revenue: 893 million yuan, down 25.96% YoY, up 92.91% QoQ - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 121 million yuan, down 38.92% YoY, up 128.16% QoQ - Gross margin: 27.00%, down 0.47% YoY, down 4.60% QoQ - Net margin: 13.53%, down 2.87% YoY, up 2.09% QoQ - In H1 2024, the company's revenue was 1.356 billion yuan, down 34.20% YoY, mainly due to slow domestic customer activity and delayed deliveries [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 174 million yuan, down 36.23% YoY - Gross margin: 28.57%, up 4.61% YoY - Net margin: 12.82%, down 0.41% YoY - Overseas business accounted for 56% of total revenue, with continuous order deliveries [5] - Domestic/overseas revenue: 598 million yuan/758 million yuan, accounting for 44.08%/55.92% of total revenue - Gross margin for domestic/overseas business: 29.81%/27.59%, up 8.37%/0.45% YoY - The company has successfully delivered multiple offshore projects in Europe, including the Moray West project in Scotland and the NOY-lles D'Yeu et Noirmoutier project in France [5] Financial Performance - Operating cash flow improved significantly in H1 2024, with a net operating cash flow of 247 million yuan, up 199.75% YoY [6] - Inventory as of June 30, 2024: 2.004 billion yuan, up 12.09% YoY [6] - Accounts receivable: 1.431 billion yuan, down 23.38% YoY [6] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 514 million yuan in 2024 and 715 million yuan in 2025 [6] - EPS is forecasted to be 0.81 yuan/share in 2024 and 1.12 yuan/share in 2025 [6] - The company is given a 2024 PE range of 25-30x, with a reasonable value range of 20.16-24.20 yuan [6] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from 4.837 billion yuan in 2024E to 7.067 billion yuan in 2026E, with a CAGR of 20.5% [7] - Net profit is projected to increase from 514 million yuan in 2024E to 953 million yuan in 2026E [7] - Gross margin is expected to improve from 23.8% in 2024E to 26.3% in 2026E [7] Comparable Company Analysis - The average PE ratio for comparable companies is 16.49x for 2024E, 11.30x for 2025E, and 9.17x for 2026E [8] - The average PS ratio for comparable companies is 1.61x for 2024 and 1.21x for 2025 [9] Financial Ratios and Efficiency - The company's ROE is expected to increase from 6.1% in 2023 to 10.5% in 2026 [10] - Asset turnover ratio is projected to improve from 0.40 in 2023 to 0.56 in 2026 [11] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio is expected to remain stable, ranging from 30.5% to 31.8% from 2024E to 2026E [11]