生物股份：盈利能力稳健，新品落地可期

Investment Rating - Strong Buy/Maintain [2] Core Views - The company reported H1 2024 revenue of 612 million yuan, a yoy decrease of 10.66%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 123 million yuan, a yoy decrease of 8.56% [2] - Despite the challenging environment in the pig farming industry, the company's ruminant vaccines showed strong growth, with multiple new products such as high-end brucellosis vaccines and sheep vaccines being launched [2] - The company's gross profit margin in H1 2024 was 57.92%, up 0.31 percentage points yoy, and the net profit margin was 20.21%, up 0.89 percentage points yoy [2] - The company is expected to see a recovery in pig vaccines in H2 2024 as farming profitability improves [2] - The company is actively advancing R&D, with 75 million yuan invested in H1 2024, accounting for 12.26% of revenue, and several new vaccines in the registration stage [2] - The company is building the world's first animal mRNA vaccine production facility, expected to be operational by 2025, and has established an AI + synthetic biology innovation platform [2] Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to achieve net profit attributable to shareholders of 328 million yuan, 418 million yuan, and 524 million yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2] - EPS is forecasted to be 0.29 yuan, 0.37 yuan, and 0.47 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2] - The PE ratio is expected to be 20x, 16x, and 13x for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2] Industry and Market Data - The company is a leading player in the animal health industry, with a product portfolio covering over 100 vaccines for pigs, poultry, pets, and ruminants [4] - The company has production qualifications for foot-and-mouth disease and highly pathogenic avian influenza vaccines, with leading domestic technology and product quality [4] - The company's 52-week stock price range is 10.87 yuan to 5.96 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 6.677 billion yuan [4] Financial Metrics - Revenue is expected to grow from 1.732 billion yuan in 2024 to 2.490 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 19.54% [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow from 328 million yuan in 2024 to 524 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 25.46% [5] - ROE is forecasted to increase from 5.88% in 2024 to 8.46% in 2026 [5] - Gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 60% from 2024 to 2026 [5]