BYD(002594) 广发证券·2024-09-09 10:37Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of BYD, with a target price of RMB 327 for A-shares and HKD 306.76 for H-shares [1][2] Core Views - BYD's revenue for H1 2024 reached RMB 301.127 billion, a YoY increase of 15.76%, with net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 24.44% to RMB 13.631 billion [1] - In Q2 2024, BYD's revenue was RMB 176.182 billion, up 25.89% YoY and 41.01% QoQ, while net profit attributable to shareholders surged 32.8% YoY and 98.36% QoQ to RMB 9.062 billion [1] - BYD's new energy vehicle (NEV) sales in H1 2024 reached 1.613 million units, a YoY increase of 28.46%, driven by the launch of the Honor Edition models and the dual-drive strategy of Dynasty and Ocean series [1] - The company's global expansion is accelerating, with NEVs entering 77 countries and regions, including Brazil, Germany, Japan, and Thailand [1] - BYD's overseas retail sales are expected to exceed 650,000 units by 2026, supported by local production facilities in Thailand, Brazil, and Uzbekistan [1] Business Performance and Strategy - BYD's gross profit margin in H1 2024 was 20.01%, up 1.69 percentage points YoY, while the net profit margin increased by 0.29 percentage points to 4.69% [8] - The company's Q2 2024 gross profit margin was 18.69%, down 3.19 percentage points QoQ, but the net profit margin rose to 5.3%, up 1.48 percentage points QoQ [8] - BYD's NEV sales in Q2 2024 reached 988,000 units, a YoY increase of 40.44%, with export sales accounting for 105,500 units [11] - The company's average revenue per vehicle in Q2 2024 was RMB 136,000, down RMB 20,000 YoY and RMB 5,000 QoQ, primarily due to the launch of lower-priced Honor Edition models [11] - BYD's DM 5.0 technology, with a thermal efficiency of 46.06% and a fuel consumption of 2.6L per 100km, is expected to enhance its competitiveness in the European market [13][14] Global Expansion and Market Outlook - BYD is prioritizing emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, South America, and the Middle East, with local production facilities expected to contribute to overseas growth [1][15] - The company's overseas production capacity is projected to reach 950,000 units by 2027, with factories in Thailand, Brazil, and Uzbekistan leading the expansion [15] - BYD's high pricing strategy in overseas markets, such as Germany, Thailand, and Japan, is expected to offset tariffs and shipping costs, contributing to higher profit margins [16][17] - The company's overseas retail sales are forecasted to account for 11% of total sales by 2026, reaching over 650,000 units [15] Financial Projections - BYD's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach RMB 38.1 billion, RMB 49.2 billion, and RMB 54.8 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [1] - The company's automotive sales are projected to grow to 3.73 million, 4.97 million, and 6.12 million units in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [18] - BYD's automotive business revenue is forecasted to reach RMB 582.9 billion, RMB 783.1 billion, and RMB 943.6 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [18] - The company's secondary rechargeable battery business is expected to grow at a CAGR of 30% from 2024 to 2026, with gross margins stabilizing at 14-15% [19]