INDUSTRIAL SECURITIES·2024-09-09 13:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BYD, projecting a net profit of 38.769 billion yuan for 2024, 49.647 billion yuan for 2025, and 58.004 billion yuan for 2026 [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant overseas market potential for passenger vehicles, estimating a potential sales volume of over 50 million units, with a single company potentially achieving sales of 4 million units abroad. The global penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) is expected to rise, presenting historical opportunities for BYD [1][6]. - The report emphasizes that the low penetration rate of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) in Europe is primarily a supply issue rather than a demand issue, suggesting that BYD's expansion into PHEVs could replicate the success seen in the domestic market [1][6]. - The report outlines BYD's strategic progress in four major regions, with plans to expand its product line from electric vehicles (EVs) to PHEVs in 2024, and highlights the company's proactive inventory management and production capacity expansion [1][6]. Summary by Sections Market Data - As of September 6, 2024, BYD's closing price is 251.60 yuan, with a total share capital of 2,909.27 million shares and net assets of 142,787.20 million yuan [1]. Space for Growth - The report identifies a potential overseas market space for Chinese passenger vehicles exceeding 50 million units, with local brands accounting for 29.67 million units in 2023. The total global passenger vehicle sales, excluding local brands, is approximately 52.1 million units [6][9]. Market Structure - The report notes that the European market has a high EV penetration rate but a low PHEV penetration rate, indicating a supply issue. In the Asia-Pacific region, BYD faces challenges related to consumer education and EV adoption, while the South American market shows potential for compact vehicles and pickups [1][6]. Progress - BYD has exported over 200,000 vehicles in the first half of 2024, with plans to expand its product offerings globally. The company is utilizing a dealer model for market expansion and is actively managing inventory levels [1][6]. Outlook - The report anticipates that despite potential tariff impacts, the profitability of overseas products will remain higher than domestic products. The introduction of PHEVs in Europe is expected to enhance BYD's competitive position and overall profitability [1][6].